Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory (SH:600809) Shanghai Aijian Securities·2025-12-08 13:12Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperforming the Market" [3][20]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is entering a phase of rapid performance clearing, with demand expected to show weak recovery as policy pressures ease. The industry is currently at a low valuation, and pessimistic expectations are fully priced in, indicating a clearer direction for future industry clearing [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-growth consumer goods sectors, where new products and channels are expected to drive market interest and valuation premiums for "scarce" growth targets [2]. - The report highlights the strategic responses of leading companies like Shanxi Fenjiu and Wuliangye to industry adjustments, focusing on brand value maintenance and consumer-driven strategies [3]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is expected to see a weak recovery in demand due to easing policy pressures, with leading companies like Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu being recommended for their stable pricing and strong dividend yields [2]. - Shanxi Fenjiu's 2025 global dealer conference outlined a focus on national expansion, youth engagement, and precise consumer targeting, indicating a proactive approach to market share growth during industry adjustments [3]. - Wuliangye has adjusted its 2025 investment plan, reducing total investment while increasing brand promotion efforts, aiming to stabilize pricing and maintain brand integrity amid market discussions about price reductions [3]. Consumer Goods Sector - The report suggests focusing on high-growth consumer goods, with companies like Wancheng Group and Dongpeng Beverage showing promising growth trajectories [2]. - The consumer goods sector is characterized by ongoing innovation and new channel development, which are expected to attract market interest and valuation premiums [2].