VANKE(SZ:000002) Yintai Securities·2025-12-09 02:38Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views - The Central Politburo meeting emphasized that the economic work in 2026 should adhere to making progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency, continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and enhance the integrated effect of existing and incremental policies [2]. - The import in China shows a certain repair trend, while the growth rate of exports has declined slightly in the past two months, which is in line with expectations due to the high base of exports in the same period last year, weak overseas demand, and the overdraft effect of pre - export on demand [3]. - The A - share market closed higher on the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.54%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.39%, and the ChiNext Index rising 2.6% [4]. - The Central Economic Work Conference may maintain a moderately supportive tone in fiscal and monetary policies, increase support for innovative consumption, focus on the reform and re - balancing themes established in the new five - year plan, and reiterate the stability of the real estate market [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Economic Policy - The 2026 fiscal policy may continue the high - financing trend of government bonds, and the deficit rate may increase. The monetary policy will focus on improving traditional mechanisms, and large - scale interest - rate cuts are expected to be cautious. There are policy expectations for promoting consumption, and innovation, people's livelihood, and green transformation will be long - term policy orientations [2]. - The Central Economic Work Conference may set the GDP growth target for 2026 in the range of 4.5% - 5%, and maintain a moderately supportive tone in fiscal and monetary policies, focusing on innovation, consumption, and real estate market stability [9]. 3.2 Trade Data - In the first 11 months of 2025, China's cumulative export in US dollars increased by 5.4% year - on - year, with a monthly increase of 5.9%. The cumulative increase in imports was - 0.6%, and the monthly increase was 1.9% [3]. 3.3 Financial Market - A - share market: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.54%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.39%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.6%, and the two - market trading volume increased by 3108.75 billion yuan compared with the previous trading day [4]. - International market: The South Korean Composite Index rose 1.34%, the Wande All - A Index rose 1.04%, the Russian RTS Index fell 1.75%, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.23%, the US three major stock indexes closed down, the German DAX rose slightly by 0.07%, the French CAC40 fell slightly by 0.08%, and the UK FTSE 100 fell 0.23% [4]. - Interest rates: The 10 - year Treasury bond yield was 1.8526%, with a change of + 0.4BP, and the average prices of inter - bank R001 and R007 on the day were 1.3718% and 1.4940% respectively [5]. 3.4 Real Estate Market - In November, the sales volume of commercial housing in 30 cities decreased by 33% year - on - year, and the year - on - year decline in the first 6 days of December was 34%. The contract sales volume of top - 100 developers in November decreased by 37% year - on - year, and the number of second - hand housing listings in 50 cities increased by 10% year - on - year [7]. - Vanke is seeking bondholders' approval to postpone the repayment of two domestic bonds worth 200 million yuan and 370 million yuan respectively, and the bondholders' meetings are scheduled for December 10 and 22 [8]. - UBS expects that in November, the year - on - year decline in real estate sales will expand (down 20 - 25% year - on - year), and real estate investment will continue to contract deeply (down 23% year - on - year) [10]. 3.5 Economic Forecast - UBS expects that in 2026, the GDP growth target will be in the range of 4.5% - 5%, and the GDP growth rate will fall to 4.5%. The Central Economic Work Conference may maintain a moderately supportive tone in fiscal and monetary policies [9]. - For the November official data, UBS expects that real estate sales will decline more, real estate investment will contract deeply, infrastructure investment decline will narrow slightly, retail and export sales will improve slightly, industrial production growth will slow down, official social financing and credit growth may slightly decrease, CPI may improve, and PPI decline may narrow slightly [10].