油料产业风险管理日报-20251209

Report Information - Report Title: Oilseed Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: December 9, 2025 - Analyst: Jin Wandong (Investment Consulting License Number: Z0022725) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1][2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The outer - market US soybeans focus on whether the yield of 53 bushels per acre in the December supply - demand report will continue to be reduced. The US claims 12 million tons of Chinese purchases, but less than 40% has been completed, and the completion date may be postponed. If the inventory remains around 300 million bushels, the US soybean price will fluctuate around the cost - line. The inner - market soybean meal lacks a unilateral driver and will follow the outer - market in the short - term. In the medium - term, the shipping schedule of Chinese purchases of US soybeans and the scale of the state reserve release will determine the supply in the first quarter. [4] - Recently, US soybeans have fallen below key levels, and the inner - market has followed suit with a larger decline due to the news of state reserve release. The profit of soybean purchases has decreased. The scale of the state reserve release is estimated to be between 5 - 6 million tons, and a weekly release of 500,000 tons may continue until the end of February. When trading the profit of US soybean purchases, the supply scale should be used to judge the trend. [4] - Rapeseed meal is in a state of weak supply and demand. The rapeseed inventory and crushing have been exhausted, and the rapeseed meal inventory is also declining rapidly. However, due to the expected arrival of Australian rapeseed and subsequent imports, the supply is expected to recover, so the rapeseed meal market is weak. Currently in the off - season of aquatic consumption, the demand growth is limited, and the rapeseed meal inventory is expected to rise. [4][5] - The cost of previous soybean purchases supports the near - month contracts, and the outer - market balance sheet valuation range is moving up. However, the current high inventory of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills in China, the smooth planting in Brazil, and the expected South American bumper harvest are suppressing the far - month prices. The supply gap in the far - month is expected to be filled under the background of China - US trade talks. [8][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Oilseed Price Forecast | Commodity | Price Range (Monthly) | Current Volatility (20 - day Rolling) | Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 - year) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal | 2800 - 3300 | 8.5% | 3.1% | | Rapeseed Meal | 2250 - 2750 | 9.8% | 0.9% | [3] | 2. Oilseed Hedging Strategy | Behavior Orientation | Scenario Analysis | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Trader Inventory Management | High protein inventory, worried about the decline in meal prices | Long | Short soybean meal futures to lock in profits and cover production costs according to inventory | M2605 | Sell | 25% | 2850 - 2900 | | Feed Mill Procurement Management | Low regular procurement inventory, want to purchase according to orders | Short | Buy soybean meal futures at present to lock in procurement costs | M2605 | Buy | 50% | 2700 - 2750 | | Oil Mill Inventory Management | Worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices | Long | Short soybean meal futures to lock in profits and cover production costs according to the situation | M2605 | Sell | 50% | 2850 - 2950 | [3] | 3. Oilseed Futures Prices | Commodity | Closing Price | Today's Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3008 | - 22 | - 0.73% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2763 | - 15 | - 0.54% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 2936 | - 9 | - 0.31% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2397 | - 25 | - 1.03% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2317 | - 25 | - 1.07% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2446 | - 18 | - 0.73% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 1093.75 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.0723 | 0.0036 | 0.05% | [9] | 4. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Price Spreads | Spread | Price | Today's Change | Spread | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 252 | 37 | RM01 - 05 | 20 | - 7 | | M05 - 09 | - 115 | - 3 | RM05 - 09 | - 69 | 0 | | M09 - 01 | - 100 | - 5 | RM09 - 01 | 49 | 7 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Spot | 3020 | 0 | Soybean Meal Rizhao Basis | 199 | 12 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2580 | 0 | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | 38 | 35 | | Soybean - Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 640 | 20 | Soybean - Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 436 | - 8 | [10] | 5. Oilseed Import Costs and Crushing Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf Soybean Import Cost (23%) | 4716.1059 | - 40.415 | 0.0773 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Cost | 3763.46 | - 32.42 | - 73.19 | | US Gulf (3%) - US Gulf (23%) Cost Difference | - 766.8465 | - 2.2244 | 6.6552 | | US Gulf Soybean Import Profit (23%) | - 1011.6253 | - 40.415 | - 138.5985 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Profit | 67.7677 | 0.2112 | - 0.708 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Futures Profit | 687 | - 51 | 23 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Spot Profit | 913 | - 55 | 13 | [11] |