Holly Futures(SZ:001236) Hong Ye Qi Huo·2025-12-09 09:12Group 1: Report Summary - The report is about the iron ore market, with the trading logic of continuous decline in hot metal production and weak shock in the market [5]. - The global iron ore shipment increased slightly this period, with an increase in Australian and non - mainstream ores and a decrease in Brazilian ores. The arrival volume decreased slightly and remained at a medium - high level. Domestic ore production dropped to a low level, and the overall supply was relatively loose [6]. - The hot metal production continued to decline. With the deepening of the off - season of terminal demand, the number of steel mill overhauls increased, and there was still room for the hot metal production to decline. The support of steel mills' rigid demand procurement weakened [6]. - The port inventory increased slightly and remained at a medium - high level, while the steel mill inventory fluctuated at a low level. The demand for winter storage replenishment had not started, and the overall inventory was relatively stable [5][6]. - The basis of 01 and 05 contracts fluctuated slightly, and the steel mill profitability increased slightly. The imported ore price fluctuated in the range of 100 - 105 US dollars per ton [5]. - The strategy is range - bound trading, and the iron ore market is expected to maintain a weak shock in the short term [6]. Group 2: Price and Spread - The spot price fluctuated and declined [7]. - The spread between PB powder and Super Special powder, as well as between PB powder and Macfarlane powder, fluctuated at a low level [13][17]. - The 1 - 5 spread fluctuated and declined, and the 05 basis declined slightly [21]. - The screw - ore ratio fluctuated and rebounded, and the ore - coke ratio fluctuated at a high level [28]. Group 3: Supply - From December 1st to December 7th, the global iron ore shipment was 3368.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 45.4 tons. The Australian shipment was 1967.4 tons, a month - on - month increase of 147.0 tons; the Brazilian shipment was 675.2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 254.2 tons; the non - mainstream ore shipment was 1174.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 91 tons [5]. - The arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2480.5 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 218.8 tons [5]. - As of December 5th, the daily average output of iron concentrate powder of 186 domestic mines was 45.39 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.09 tons, the capacity utilization rate was 58.09%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.68%, and the mine concentrate powder inventory was 75.12 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 tons [5]. - The shipping price index declined slightly [51]. Group 4: Demand - In the week of December 5th, the daily average hot metal output was 232.3 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.38 tons. With the deepening of the off - season of terminal demand, the number of steel mill overhauls increased, and the hot metal production still had room to decline [5]. - The steel mill blast furnace profit declined slightly [64]. Group 5: Inventory - The imported ore inventory increased slightly, the number of ships at the port decreased by 3 to 109, the port congestion decreased slightly, and the port inventory continued to accumulate and remained at a medium - high level [5]. - The steel mill inventory fluctuated at a low level, and the demand for winter storage replenishment had not started [5][6]. - The port throughput declined from a high level, and the port inventory increased slightly [77]. - The Australian ore inventory continued to increase, and the Brazilian ore inventory declined from a high level [81]. - The coarse powder inventory fluctuated at a high level, and the lump ore inventory increased slightly [87].