Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The external market of US soybeans focuses on whether the 53 bushels per acre yield in the December supply and demand report has a continued downward trend. The US claims that China will purchase 12 million tons of soybeans, but as of now, China has only completed less than 40% of the purchase, and the completion date may be postponed. It's necessary to consider whether the annual balance sheet of US soybeans can maintain stable export demand. If the inventory remains at around 300 million bushels, the annual price of US soybeans will continue to fluctuate around the cost line. The domestic soybean meal lacks a clear unilateral driving force and will follow the US market in the short - term. In the medium - term, the shipping schedule of China's US soybean purchases and the scale of state reserve releases will determine the domestic supply in the first quarter [1]. - Rapeseed meal is in a state of both weak supply and demand. The current rapeseed inventory and crushing have been exhausted, and the rapeseed meal inventory is also declining rapidly. However, due to the arrival of Australian rapeseed and the expectation of supply recovery, the rapeseed meal market is weak. Moreover, it is currently the off - season for aquatic consumption, so the demand growth is limited, and the rapeseed meal inventory is expected to increase in the future [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Soybean Meal: The external market of US soybeans has uncertainties in supply (potential yield reduction) and demand (China's slow purchase pace). The domestic soybean meal market lacks a clear driving force and is affected by China's purchase of US soybeans and state reserve releases [1]. - Rapeseed Meal: It is currently in a state of weak supply and demand. Although the current inventory is low, the expected supply recovery and weak demand in the off - season lead to an expected increase in inventory [1]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Trend Judgment: The market trend is weak and declining [19]. - Price Range: The M2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 2800 - 3200. After the contract switch, M2603 and M2605 may reach previous low levels [19]. - Strategy Suggestions: Reduce or exit the previously sold 3300 call options on M2601; reduce the position of the previously sold 2600 call options on rapeseed meal 2601 as the option approaches expiration; consider short - selling M2603 and M2605 [19]. 1.2.1 Basis, Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations - Basis Strategy: In the previous period, the basis operation could be considered around 170 - 150 for M1 - 5. In the absence of a basis purchase, consider one - time price purchases during the downward cycle [20]. - Spread Strategy: Previously, the M1 - 5 spread was considered to stop falling around 170, and a positive spread trading idea should be maintained before downstream contract roll - over [20]. - Hedging Arbitrage Strategy: Short the spread between soybean meal 2601 and rapeseed meal 2601 when the spread is around (650, 700) [20]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Suggestions - Price Range Forecast: The price range of soybean meal is predicted to be 2800 - 3300, with a current volatility of 8.5% and a historical percentile of 3.1% in the past 3 years. The price range of rapeseed meal is predicted to be 2250 - 2750, with a current volatility of 9.8% and a historical percentile of 0.9% in the past 3 years [22]. - Hedging Strategy: - Traders: Short 25% of the M2605 contract at 2850 - 2900 to hedge the risk of inventory value decline [22]. - Feed Mills: Long 50% of the M2605 contract at 2700 - 2750 to lock in the purchase cost [22]. - Oil Mills: Short 50% of the M2605 contract at 2850 - 2950 to lock in profits and offset production costs [22]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - Futures Prices: The closing prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts showed different degrees of decline. The price of CBOT soybeans remained unchanged, and the offshore RMB exchange rate increased slightly [23]. - Spreads: The spreads between different futures contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal also showed various changes. The basis of soybean meal in Rizhao and rapeseed meal in Fujian showed different trends [23]. - Import Costs and Pressing Profits: The import costs of US and Brazilian soybeans decreased, and the pressing profits of US and Brazilian soybeans also changed. The pressing profits of Canadian rapeseed also showed certain fluctuations [24]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: The US government will announce a $12 billion agricultural assistance plan. As of December 4, the sowing of 2025/26 Brazilian soybeans was 94% complete. China's state - owned grain reserve company COFCO will auction 512,500 metric tons of imported soybeans [26][27]. - Negative Information: The US soybean exports to China decreased compared with the same period in previous years. The net sales volume of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season decreased [29]. - Spot Transaction Information: Downstream customers continue to purchase on a short - term basis [30]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events - Monday: Domestic weekly inventory data, USDA export sales report. - Tuesday: USDA export inspection report, Brazil Secex weekly report. - Wednesday: CFTC agricultural product position report, USDA monthly supply and demand report. - Thursday: USDA export sales report. - Saturday: CFTC agricultural product position [35]. Chapter 3: Market Analysis 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Analysis - Domestic Market: - Unilateral Trend: The domestic soybean meal market followed the external market and declined. The rapeseed meal market also declined due to the news of Australian rapeseed imports [34]. - Capital Flow: Key profitable seats in soybean meal and rapeseed meal reduced long positions and increased short positions. The market sentiment index was average according to the soybean meal option PCR [34]. - Spread Structure: The spread between different futures contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is mainly related to the seasonal supply. This week, the spread between January and May contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal strengthened due to the decline of the May contract [40]. - Basis Structure: The basis of soybean meal remained stable, while the basis of rapeseed meal declined. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased. The far - month basis is expected to remain stable, and the spread is expected to maintain a positive spread [45]. - External Market: - External Trend: The external market declined due to China's slow purchase pace, the US crop subsidy policy, and the exit of long - position funds before the USDA report [56]. - Capital Position: The CFTC data is lagging and has no reference value. It is expected to return to normal progress in January [62]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Regional Profit Tracking - The pressing profit in the US soybean - producing area decreased slightly, while the profit in the Brazilian and Argentine producing areas increased. The domestic pressing profit of Canadian rapeseed increased due to the decline in rapeseed prices [68]. 4.2 Import - Export and Pressing Profit Tracking - Recently, US soybeans declined, and the domestic market followed suit. The news of state reserve releases led to a greater decline in the domestic market, and the profit of purchasing ships decreased [72]. - Regarding supply and ship - purchasing, the sentiment for purchasing Brazilian soybeans is average, and the far - month US soybean purchases will be carried out through state reserve rotation. The purchase of rapeseed is expected to remain cautious due to the import margin factor [74]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 International Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - US: The US soybean production in November is expected to be 4.3 billion bushels, a decrease of 48 million bushels from the September forecast, mainly due to the decline in yield. The export volume is expected to be 1.64 billion bushels, a decrease of 50 million bushels from the previous forecast. The pressing volume remains unchanged, and the ending inventory is expected to decline slightly. The average seasonal price is expected to increase by $0.50 to $10.50 per bushel [95][96][97]. - Global: In the 2025/26 global soybean supply - demand forecast for November, the beginning inventory and production decreased, the pressing volume decreased by 1.7 million tons, the export volume increased by 200,000 tons, and the ending inventory decreased by 2 million tons [98][99][100]. 5.2 Domestic Supply and Projection - Soybean Import: The purchase sentiment of Brazilian soybeans is average, and the far - month US soybean purchases are mainly through state reserve rotation. The expected arrival volume of soybeans in December is 7.5 million tons, 6 million tons in January, and 5 million tons in February. The rapeseed import remains at a low level [101]. 5.3 Domestic Demand and Projection - The domestic soybean pressing volume is expected to remain high, but the domestic soybean meal consumption is difficult to increase significantly after the previous high - level stocking [103]. 5.4 Domestic Inventory and Projection - The domestic soybean inventory is at a seasonal high but is expected to decline in the fourth quarter and stabilize and rebound in the first quarter of next year. The domestic soybean meal inventory is also expected to remain at around 600,000 tons in the first quarter of next year [105].
南华期货油料产业周报：中国采购美豆节奏偏慢，国内开放抛储打压盘面-20251209