硫磺行业深度报告：全球供需矛盾突出，硫磺价格有望上行

Investment Rating - The report rates the sulfur industry as "Outperform the Market" [1][5] Core Insights - The global supply-demand imbalance in sulfur is significant, leading to an expected increase in sulfur prices. The production of high-sulfur crude oil is anticipated to decline, which will further tighten sulfur supply [1][4] - Sulfur is primarily used for sulfuric acid production, with demand expected to maintain moderate growth, contributing to a tighter global sulfur supply. In China, 93% of sulfur is used for sulfuric acid production [2][3] - The domestic sulfur industry is experiencing high demand, with sulfur prices likely to rise due to increased downstream demand from fertilizers and other chemical products [4][5] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global sulfur production is expected to grow slowly due to declining oil and gas consumption growth rates. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a 1% growth in oil consumption and a 1.3% growth in natural gas consumption for 2024 [1][22] - The Middle East is a major source of high-sulfur crude oil, and recent OPEC decisions to pause production increases will further tighten sulfur supply [1][23] Domestic Market Overview - In China, sulfur production is projected to reach 11.07 million tons in 2024, with an import dependency of 47%. The majority of sulfur is sourced from oil refining by-products [3][53] - The sulfuric acid production capacity in China is expected to reach 141 million tons in 2024, with a significant portion derived from sulfur [3][62] Price Trends and Forecasts - The domestic sulfur price has seen a significant increase, with a current price of 4,100 RMB/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 165.37% [4][32] - The report anticipates that sulfur prices will continue to rise due to global supply constraints and increasing demand from downstream industries [4][32] Key Companies and Investment Opportunities - China Petroleum is highlighted as a key beneficiary of rising sulfur prices due to its substantial refining capacity and access to high-sulfur natural gas resources [4][5]