Investment Rating - Initiate with OUTPERFORM rating [1][2] Core Views - MIXUE Group is the largest fresh beverage chain in China and ranks fourth globally in terms of GMV, with a market share of 2.2% [3][7] - The company aims to achieve a "trinity of total cost leadership" through a strong supply chain, brand IP, and store operations [4][28] - The fresh beverage market is experiencing significant growth driven by rising disposable income and consumer demand for higher quality products [12][14] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 24.83 billion in 2024 to RMB 42.17 billion in 2027, with a CAGR of 22% [5] - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 4.45 billion in 2024 to RMB 7.50 billion in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 40% [5] - The company is valued at a P/E of 25x for 2026, leading to a target price of HK$ 482 [5] Market Position - The fresh beverage market in China is expected to grow from RMB 517.5 billion in 2023 to RMB 1,163.4 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 17.6% [12][14] - The market share of fresh tea drinks is projected to increase significantly, especially in lower-tier cities [18][23] Competitive Advantages - MIXUE Group has established a comprehensive digital supply chain covering procurement, production, and logistics, allowing for cost advantages [30][37] - The company has a unique brand IP, "Snow King," which enhances brand recognition and consumer loyalty [38] - The franchise model has led to a rapid expansion of stores, with over 48,000 locations in China as of 1H25 [41][43] Expansion Strategy - The company plans to penetrate both domestic and international markets, focusing on lower-tier cities and Southeast Asia [4][49] - MIXUE Group has launched sub-brands like Lucky Coffee and Fresh Beer to diversify its product offerings and revenue streams [49]
蜜雪集团（02097）：首次覆盖：雪王驾到：“饮”领全球，成本优势铸就核心竞争力