柳药集团（603368）：Q3批发业务逐步恢复，来年稳健增长可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [7][9]. Core Insights - The company's wholesale business is gradually recovering in Q3, with a projected stable growth outlook for the coming year. The total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 15.758 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.47% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 646 million yuan, down 9.81% [3][4]. - The decline in revenue and profit is primarily attributed to the impact of centralized procurement policies and hospital drug sales control, which have led to a temporary decrease in sales volume and profit margins in the wholesale segment. However, improvements in product structure and cost reduction efforts are expected to support a gradual recovery in performance [4][5]. - The retail and industrial segments showed steady growth, with retail revenue increasing by 8.17% to 2.591 billion yuan and industrial revenue rising by 6.44% to 860 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [5]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2025, the gross margin was 10.88%, a decrease of 0.88 percentage points, while the net profit margin was 4.10%, down 0.38 percentage points. The company’s operating cash flow net amount was 135 million yuan, an increase of 10.09% [4]. - The company’s revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 21.133 billion yuan, 22.221 billion yuan, and 23.383 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 828 million yuan, 873 million yuan, and 922 million yuan [9][11]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has implemented an employee stock ownership plan and stock option incentive plan to enhance talent retention and core team cohesion. The first transfer of shares under the employee stock ownership plan has been completed, involving 52 employees [6]. - To diversify its product offerings and enhance competitiveness, the company has established a wholly-owned subsidiary and signed an investment agreement with Suninflam Ltd. for the development of an innovative monoclonal antibody drug targeting inflammation-related factors in epilepsy [8].