Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [6]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the African hygiene products market and has officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The emerging market for hygiene products shows high growth potential, and the company is expected to maintain strong performance [2][11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from $411.37 million in 2023 to $669.08 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.6% in 2023 and a gradual decline to 12.9% by 2027 [4]. - Net profit is expected to increase significantly from $64.68 million in 2023 to $147.41 million in 2027, with a remarkable growth of 251.7% in 2023 [4]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is forecasted to be 3.32 in 2023, dropping to 16.22 by 2027, indicating a potential increase in valuation as earnings grow [4]. Industry Overview - The African hygiene products market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.9% from 2024 to 2029, positioning it as the fastest-growing market globally [11]. - The market is highly concentrated, with the company holding a market share of 17.2% in baby diapers and 11.9% in sanitary napkins by revenue, while leading in sales volume with 20.3% and 15.6% respectively [11][19]. Competitive Advantages - The company has a comprehensive brand portfolio covering various price segments, with high brand recognition and repurchase rates in the baby diaper and sanitary napkin categories [11][19]. - It has established a robust distribution network across over 30 countries in Africa, reaching more than 80% of the local population [11][19]. - The company achieves 100% local production in Africa, which enhances its supply chain efficiency and cost-effectiveness [11][19]. Future Outlook - Revenue growth is anticipated to be driven by increasing market share in emerging markets and improved production capacity utilization [11][19]. - Profit margins are expected to benefit from brand upgrades and structural optimization, offsetting potential adverse fluctuations in raw material prices [11][19]. Earnings Forecast - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be $0.17, $0.21, and $0.24 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [11][15]. - Revenue from key products such as baby diapers, pull-ups, sanitary napkins, and wet wipes is expected to grow significantly, with specific growth rates of 10.1%, 37.2%, 24.8%, and 37.7% respectively from 2025 to 2027 [15][16]. Valuation Analysis - The report suggests a target price of $5.19 per share (equivalent to 40.36 HKD), based on a PE ratio of 30x for 2025, reflecting the company's strong growth potential in overseas markets [11][17].
乐舒适（02698）：首次覆盖报告：非洲卫生用品龙头，港股正式上市