泸州老窖（000568）：公司信息更新报告：保持战略定力，压力有序释放

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company maintains strategic determination, with pressure being released in an orderly manner. The core product, Guojiao, has kept its price relatively stable without pursuing excessively high growth, resulting in a relatively stable market order. Due to weak consumer demand, profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downwards, with expected net profits of 13.04 billion (-9.0%), 13.30 billion (-11.9%), and 13.94 billion (-13.0%) respectively, showing year-on-year changes of -3.2%, +2.0%, and +4.8%. The current stock price corresponds to valuations of 13.7, 13.4, and 12.8 times [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue growth for the first three quarters showed a sequential decline: +2% in Q1, -8% in Q2, and -10% in Q3, indicating a gradual release of pressure on the financial statements without drastic fluctuations [4] - The company’s revenue for 2025 is projected at 29.398 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 5.8% [8] - The gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 87% for the forecast period [10] Market Conditions - The worst period for white liquor demand may have passed, with marginal improvements becoming evident. Short-term demand has been negatively impacted by macroeconomic conditions and unexpected events, but fiscal stimulus policies are expected to enhance economic activity, leading to a slowdown in the decline of white liquor demand [5][6] - The market order for the company remains good, with stable pricing for Guojiao and acceptable profitability for distributors, attributed to the implementation of a strict logistics system since 2024 [6] Valuation Metrics - The expected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 13.7, 13.4, and 12.8 respectively, indicating a gradual decrease in valuation multiples [8][10] - The projected net profit margin for 2025 is 44.4%, with a slight increase to 45.1% in 2026 and 45.9% in 2027 [11]