KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Dongguan Securities·2025-12-12 08:40Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [6][55]. Core Insights - The report highlights fluctuations in the price of Feitian liquor and emphasizes the importance of monitoring the recovery of demand. The central economic work conference has prioritized domestic demand, which is expected to boost the consumption market through various measures [6][50]. - The report notes that the SW food and beverage industry index decreased by 3.45% from November 28 to December 11, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 4.27 percentage points [13][15]. - It indicates that all sub-sectors within the industry underperformed the CSI 300 index during the same period, with only about 21% of stocks recording positive returns [15][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The SW food and beverage industry index fell by 3.45%, ranking 29th among Shenwan's primary industries, and underperformed the CSI 300 index by 4.27 percentage points [13][15]. - All sub-sectors underperformed the CSI 300 index, with the pre-processed food sector showing the smallest decline at 0.04% [15][16]. - Approximately 21% of stocks in the industry recorded positive returns, with notable gainers including Anji Food (+67.83%) and Hai Xin Food (+36.17%) [18][20]. - The industry valuation is currently at a PE (TTM) of approximately 20.59 times, below the five-year average of 32 times [19][21]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Liquor Sector - The price of Feitian liquor has decreased, with the current price at 1500 yuan/bottle, down 90 yuan from November 27. The prices for other products like Pu Wu and Guojiao 1573 remain stable at 850 yuan/bottle [21][22]. 2.2 Seasoning Sector - Prices for soybeans and glass have increased, while white sugar prices have decreased. Soybean prices rose to 4290.50 yuan/ton, while white sugar fell to 5370.00 yuan/ton [25][27]. 2.3 Beer Sector - Prices for barley, glass, aluminum ingots, and corrugated paper have increased. Barley is priced at 2200.00 yuan/ton, and aluminum ingots at 21800.00 yuan/ton [30][33]. 2.4 Dairy Sector - The average price of fresh milk remains stable at 3.02 yuan/kg, with no change from the previous month [37][39]. 2.5 Meat Products Sector - The average wholesale price of pork has decreased to 17.62 yuan/kg, down 0.45 yuan from November 27 [39][40]. 3. Industry News - The report mentions the release of the Chinese liquor market prosperity index, which indicates a "relatively unprosperous" market condition [41]. - A campaign to issue liquor consumption vouchers in Guizhou aims to stimulate consumer confidence and market activity [42]. - The report notes a 1.7% year-on-year decline in liquor prices as of November [43]. 4. Company Announcements - Guizhou Moutai announced a cash dividend of 23.957 yuan per share, totaling 30 billion yuan [46]. - Wuliangye also announced a cash dividend of 25.78 yuan per 10 shares, amounting to 100.07 billion yuan [47].