国信期货生猪周报：供需双增，猪价延续震荡-20251212

Report Information - Report Title: "Supply and Demand Both Increase, Pig Prices Continue to Fluctuate - Guoxin Futures Weekly Report on Live Pigs" [2] - Report Date: December 12, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In the past week, live pig spot prices fluctuated with a slight rebound due to seasonally stronger consumption and steadily increasing supply. Futures prices rose first and then fell, returning to near the beginning of the week on Friday. The basis continued to fluctuate at a relatively low level, with LH01 still at a premium of about 600 yuan compared to the lower - price delivery area [7]. - From the perspective of piglet birth numbers, supply will be in a steadily increasing trend until April next year, which will suppress the upside space of pig prices in the later period [7]. - In the short term, the increase in the number of live pigs sold by large - scale farms has been limited since December, but the enthusiasm of individual farmers and those engaged in secondary fattening to sell pigs has increased, which matches the seasonal growth of consumption well. The utilization rate of secondary fattening pens continues to decline, but the reading is still slightly higher than the same period last year. The average weight of industry - wide live pigs has just started to decline, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs is weak. The industry's seasonal reduction in average weight will continue to advance. Since the Lunar New Year is still far away, the peak season window is extended, reducing the risk of concentrated release of supply pressure. It is expected that spot prices will continue to fluctuate before the Spring Festival, but based on the calculation of piglet birth data, the pressure in the off - season after the Spring Festival is still relatively large [7]. - In the long term, sample data shows that the inventory of sows capable of reproduction continues to decline, which is conducive to supporting the price center of far - end contracts. In terms of operation, the near - end should be treated with a fluctuating view, and in the context of wide - range fluctuations at the far - end, opportunities to do long in bands on dips should be grasped [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Analysis and Outlook - Past week: Spot prices of live pigs fluctuated with a slight rebound, futures prices rose first and then fell, and the basis fluctuated at a low level. LH01 was at a premium of about 600 yuan compared to the lower - price delivery area [7]. - Short - term: Supply and demand are well - matched, the average weight of pigs is expected to continue to decline, and spot prices are expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival. After the Spring Festival, there is large off - season pressure [7]. - Long - term: The decline in the inventory of sows capable of reproduction is conducive to supporting the price center of far - end contracts [7]. 63. Central Reserve Frozen Pork Operations - In case of excessive price decline: At the national level, no temporary reserve purchase and storage will be initiated when the third - level early warning of excessive decline is issued; it will be considered for initiation when the second - level early warning is issued; and temporary reserve purchase and storage will be initiated when the first - level early warning is issued. Local conditions for initiating temporary reserve purchase and storage refer to the national practice [66]. - In case of excessive price increase: Central frozen pork reserve release has two situations. In the case of market cyclical fluctuations, reserve release is initiated when the second - level early warning of excessive increase is issued, and the release intensity is increased when the first - level early warning is issued. In case of special situations such as major animal epidemic risks, the price increase tolerance is increased, and after the first - level early warning is issued, release is mainly organized intensively during key periods. Provinces can determine their own conditions for initiating reserve release, but in principle, they should not be higher than the central reserve release initiation conditions [66].