KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Soochow Securities·2025-12-14 09:16Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has a clear strategy for volume and price control, which is expected to enhance long-term resilience. The focus is on transforming marketing to seize market opportunities [3][10] - The company is facing challenges such as short-term demand weakness, mid-term consumption transformation, and long-term demographic changes. However, its innovative approaches are expected to lead the industry in upgrading [3][13] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with net profit estimates of 90.2 billion, 91 billion, and 92.9 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.5%, -1.0%, and 2.0% [3][14] Financial Projections - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 150.56 billion yuan in 2023, 174.14 billion yuan in 2024, 182.88 billion yuan in 2025, 186.53 billion yuan in 2026, and 191.82 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.04%, 15.66%, 5.02%, 1.99%, and 2.84% respectively [1][19] - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 59.68 yuan in 2023, 68.86 yuan in 2024, 71.99 yuan in 2025, 72.70 yuan in 2026, and 74.17 yuan in 2027 [1][19] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 23.80, expected to decrease to 19.15 by 2027 [1][19] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on building a product system around private domain life scenarios, including creating demand based on industry scenarios and adapting products to different levels of consumers [3][12] - A new "volume control policy" has been introduced to stabilize market prices and improve channel efficiency, with a focus on core products priced at 600, 1500, and 2000 yuan [10][11] - The company is enhancing its anti-counterfeiting measures and improving consumer purchasing experiences through technology [3][12]