能源化工纸浆周度报告-20251214

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market is expected to consolidate within a range in the short term after the bullish factors are realized. The price is supported by the increase in the December foreign market pulp price, and the overseas supply disruption strengthens the expectation of supply tightening. However, the actual trading atmosphere in the market is light, and the domestic fundamentals have not improved substantially. The core contradiction lies in the high port inventory and the low willingness of the downstream papermaking industry to purchase high - priced raw materials, resulting in a lack of effective demand support at high prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the port inventory depletion speed and the procurement sentiment fluctuations in the base paper market [95]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Industry News - As of December 11, 2025, the pulp inventory in Changshu Port was 532,000 tons, a decrease of 34,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 6.0%. The inventory in Qingdao Port was 1.362 million tons, a decrease of 33,000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 2.4%. The inventory in Gaolan Port was 54,000 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 20.0%. The total inventory of the mainstream port samples in China was 2.036 million tons, a decrease of 65,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.1%, and the inventory has been decreasing for three consecutive weeks [5][6]. - In November 2025, China's pulp imports were 3.246 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.0% and a year - on - year increase of 15.9%. The cumulative imports for the year were 32.925 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.8% [6]. - On December 10, Sun Paper (002078) planned to raise 3.6 billion yuan through a syndicated loan to accelerate the construction of new projects, accounting for about 70% of the total investment [7]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Trends - On December 12, 2025, the basis of Silver Star was 66 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 56.00% and a year - on - year decrease of 85.20%; the basis of Russian Needle was - 134 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 168.00% and a year - on - year decrease of 3250.00%; the price difference between Silver Star and Russian Needle was 200 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 55.56% [13]. 3.2.2 Month - to - Month Spread - On December 12, 2025, the 01 - 03 month - to - month spread was - 42 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 162.50%; the 03 - 05 month - to - month spread was - 38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 58.33% [18]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - The price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp narrowed this week. On December 12, 2025, the price difference between Silver Star and Goldfish was 950 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5.00% and a year - on - year decrease of 48.65%; the price difference between Russian Needle and Goldfish was 750 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.25% and a year - on - year decrease of 46.43% [23][25]. - The import profit of softwood and hardwood pulp decreased. On December 12, 2025, the import profit of Silver Star was - 67 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 57%; the import profit of Star was 20 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 83% [28]. - The price of the pulp main contract was weakly consolidating, and the spot price of imported softwood pulp was slightly weak. However, at the end of the week, the price of the new round of softwood pulp foreign market increased, and the price of the main pulp contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose significantly, and the price of imported softwood pulp increased significantly [31]. - The price of imported hardwood pulp increased. The new round of hardwood pulp foreign market still showed an increase, the subsequent import cost increased, and the domestic traders continued to hold the price and were reluctant to sell, driving up the spot price of imported hardwood pulp [34]. - On December 12, 2025, the price of Venus was 5150 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 4.63%; the price of Kunhe was 3800 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 7.04% [39]. 3.3.2 Supply - The wood chip purchase price of paper enterprises in East China generally decreased this week. On December 12, 2025, the purchase price of eucalyptus wood chips by Liansheng Pulp and Paper was 1180 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the purchase price of poplar wood chips by Wuzhou Special Paper was 1310 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4.38% [41][43]. - The price of chemimechanical pulp increased this period, and the supply of hardwood pulp increased. On December 11, 2025, the daily average price of Chinese chemimechanical pulp was 3858.33 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.31%; the weekly output of Chinese hardwood pulp was 131,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.97% [45][47]. - In October 2025, the pulp port inventory in Europe decreased month - on - month, and the global pulp outbound volume decreased seasonally month - on - month [50]. - In October 2025, the shipment volume of W20 softwood pulp was at a low level, and the inventory was high; the inventory of hardwood pulp was at a high level, but the shipment volume decreased, and the inventory days returned to a year - on - year high [51]. - In September 2025, the export volume of softwood pulp from four countries (Canada, Chile, Finland, and the United States) to China increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. In October, the export volume of Chilean softwood pulp to China continued to increase month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [57]. - In October 2025, the export volume of hardwood pulp from four countries (Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, and Chile) to China decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. In November, the export volume of Brazilian hardwood pulp to China decreased significantly month - on - month, and Uruguay decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [58]. - In October 2025, China's pulp imports were differentiated. The import of softwood pulp increased by 0.06% month - on - month, the import of hardwood pulp decreased by 2.77% month - on - month, and the imports of natural pulp and chemimechanical pulp increased significantly month - on - month [62]. 3.3.3 Demand - The price of offset paper decreased slightly this period. The core variables were the progress of publication orders and the price trend of wood pulp. The supply was abundant, the demand was weak, and the downstream procurement was mainly for rigid needs [66]. - The price of coated paper decreased slightly this period. The domestic coated paper market was narrowly sorted, and the price lacked a clear direction. The supply was stable, the demand was weak, and the downstream procurement was mainly on - demand [70]. - The price of white cardboard increased slightly this period. The impact of cost on the white cardboard market weakened. The supply capacity increased, the downstream demand was average, and the price increased and then fell [74]. - The price of tissue paper increased slightly this period. The overall trading atmosphere in the market improved little, the terminal demand was weak, and the raw material pulp price had limited support for the tissue paper price [78]. - In October 2025, the retail sales of cultural and office supplies, cosmetics, and daily necessities increased significantly year - on - year, and the dairy product output decreased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year [82]. 3.4 Inventory - On December 12, 2025, the warehouse receipt quantity of pulp in the warehouse was 193,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.89% and a year - on - year decrease of 43.15%; the warehouse receipt quantity of pulp in the factory warehouse was 6000 tons, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 75.81% [85]. - The port inventory was at a medium level within the year, and the inventory of the mainstream port samples in China decreased this period. The inventory in Qingdao Port and Changshu Port decreased, and the inventory in Gaolan Port increased [5][6][92]. 3.5 This Week's View Summary - Supply: The port inventory and the global supply pattern remained loose, with marginal improvement. As of December 11, 2025, the total inventory of the mainstream port samples in China was 2.036 million tons, a decrease of 65,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.1%, and the inventory had been decreasing for three consecutive weeks [95]. - Demand: The downstream demand maintained rigid - need procurement, and there was no obvious incremental demand. The tissue paper market was sorted within the range, the white cardboard market price was stable with a callback, and the average prices of offset paper and coated paper enterprises were stable [95]. - View: It is expected that the pulp market will consolidate within a range in the short term after the bullish factors are realized. The price is supported by the increase in the December foreign market pulp price, and the overseas supply disruption strengthens the expectation of supply tightening. However, the actual trading atmosphere in the market is light, and the domestic fundamentals have not improved substantially. The core contradiction lies in the high port inventory and the low willingness of the downstream papermaking industry to purchase high - priced raw materials, resulting in a lack of effective demand support at high prices [95]. - Valuation: In terms of the basis, on Friday, the basis of softwood pulp Silver Star in Shandong was 66 yuan/ton, an increase of 52 yuan/ton [95]. - Strategy: 1) Unilateral: Short on rallies or wait and see; 2) Inter - period: Continue the 1 - 5 reverse spread idea; 3) Inter - variety: Observe [95].