Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-12-14 13:37Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Ferroalloys are currently in a bottom - oscillating trend, with support from the cost side and suppression from high inventory and weakening downstream demand [2]. - The supply of ferroalloys is likely to continue to decrease due to seasonal patterns and declining profits, while the demand is expected to decline as hot metal production decreases [2]. - The high inventory of ferroalloys further restricts demand, and destocking may require production cuts [2]. - Despite the weak fundamentals, news about anti - involution competition and green - low - carbon transformation may cause a short - term rebound in ferroalloy prices, but price increases may stimulate hedging and suppress prices [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Supply: Ferroalloy production generally shows a decreasing trend. Last week, silicon - manganese production increased slightly by 0.68% week - on - week, while silicon - iron production decreased by 2.30% week - on - week. Future production is likely to decrease further due to corporate losses [2]. - Demand: Hot metal production decreased last week and is expected to continue to decline slightly. The demand for ferroalloys is expected to fall, and high inventory also inhibits demand [2]. - Inventory: Silicon - iron and silicon - manganese enterprise inventories are at the highest levels in the past five years. Last week, silicon - manganese enterprise inventory increased by 1.73% and silicon - iron enterprise inventory increased by 7.16% week - on - week [2]. - Trading Logic: Near - term trading is based on cost support and weakening demand; long - term trading is influenced by anti - involution expectations and green - low - carbon transformation policies [4][5]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Trend Judgment: Range - bound oscillation. The price range of the silicon - iron main contract 2603 is 5300 - 5800, and that of the silicon - manganese main contract 2603 is 5500 - 6000 [5]. - Arbitrage Strategies: All strategies (basis, calendar spread, and hedging arbitrage) recommend waiting and seeing [5]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Price Forecast: The monthly price range of silicon - iron is 5300 - 6000, with a current volatility of 15.32% and a historical percentile of 32.5% in three years. The monthly price range of silicon - manganese is 5300 - 6000, with a current volatility of 12.21% and a historical percentile of 14.5% in three years [5]. - Hedging Strategies: For inventory management, sell 15% of ferroalloy futures (SF2603, SM2603) when the price of silicon - iron is 5800 - 6000 and silicon - manganese is 6000 - 6200. For procurement management, buy 25% of ferroalloy futures when the price of silicon - iron is 5200 - 5300 and silicon - manganese is 5300 - 5400 [5]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: Ferroalloys are in a production - cut trend; magnesium ingot production in October increased by 21.96% month - on - month; downstream steel profits are gradually improving; anti - involution competition news and green - low - carbon transformation policies [6][7]. - Negative Information: Steel mill profit margins fell below 40%, and the risk of negative feedback is increasing; hot metal production is decreasing, reducing ferroalloy demand; ferroalloy enterprise inventories are increasing [7]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events - Next Monday: China's November year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods and November year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value of enterprises above designated size. - Next Tuesday: The US November unemployment rate and non - farm payrolls. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral Trends and Capital Movements: Analyzed the closing prices and positions of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese [8][9]. - Basis and Calendar Spread Structure: The term structure of ferroalloys generally shows a contango structure, with the silicon - iron contract in a backwardation structure at certain stages. The basis has narrow fluctuations, and the 1 - 5 calendar spread may weaken further [10][11]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - Downstream demand is weakening, and ferroalloy production enterprises are gradually incurring losses. The market expects ferroalloy production to continue to decrease [27]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - Analyzed the relationship between silicon - iron export profit and export volume [57]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projections 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projections - Supply: Ferroalloy production is expected to decline due to weakening downstream demand and falling production profits. - Demand: The demand for ferroalloys is expected to decrease as hot metal production declines. - Inventory: High inventory levels require production cuts for destocking [58]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Projections - Ferroalloy production is affected by production profits and seasonal patterns, and is expected to maintain a decreasing trend [62]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Projections - The demand for ferroalloys is related to hot metal production, steel enterprise profitability, and the production of downstream products such as magnesium ingots and steel products [66][68]. 5.4 Inventory - Side and Projections - The inventory of ferroalloys is at a high level, and the inventory of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese is expected to change according to production and demand [82][89].