CBGF(SZ:002478) CMS·2025-12-15 09:54Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][3]. Core Insights - The company is a leading domestic player in the special seamless steel pipe industry, with a solid operational foundation. Its boiler pipe business is expected to grow rapidly, contributing significantly to revenue, particularly from HRSG boiler pipes used in gas turbine power generation [1][7]. - The company has a healthy financial position, with a low debt ratio and substantial cash reserves, which supports its operational stability and growth potential [23][32]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 6,661 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 7%. However, a decline of 14% is expected in 2024, followed by modest growth in subsequent years [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 783 million RMB in 2023, with a significant drop of 19% anticipated in 2024 [2]. - The company maintains a low debt ratio of 34% and has cash reserves exceeding 30 billion RMB, indicating strong liquidity [32][33]. Business Overview - The company has transitioned from a traditional steel pipe manufacturer to a provider of specialized pipe solutions for high-end manufacturing and emerging industries [12][15]. - The boiler pipe segment has become a core growth driver, with its revenue share increasing from 23% in 2022 to over 40% currently [1][7]. - The company has established itself in the international supply chain for electrical equipment, supplying HRSG boiler pipes to major global players like GEV and Mitsubishi [1][7]. Market Dynamics - The demand for gas turbines is expected to surge due to the development of overseas power systems and AI data centers, which will benefit the company's HRSG boiler pipe business [1][7]. - The North American gas turbine market is experiencing a supply-demand mismatch, presenting an opportunity for the company to expand its customer base [31]. Management and Ownership - The company's ownership structure is stable, with the chairman and his family holding a significant portion of shares, ensuring continuity in management [17][20]. - The management team consists of experienced individuals who have been with the company for a long time, contributing to its strategic direction and operational efficiency [21][22].