HEGC(SZ:000883) GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2025-12-16 11:09Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for Hubei Energy with a target price of 5.70 CNY, while the current price is 4.59 CNY [6][20]. Core Views - The report is optimistic about the company's performance recovery due to significantly improved water inflow and the expected contribution from new thermal power units. Additionally, the company is entering a stable operational phase, which is likely to enhance dividends [2][12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to be 18,669 million CNY in 2023, increasing to 20,031 million CNY in 2024, followed by a slight decline to 18,919 million CNY in 2025, and then recovering to 20,248 million CNY in 2026 and 20,333 million CNY in 2027 [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 1,749 million CNY in 2023 to 2,707 million CNY in 2025, before slightly declining to 2,403 million CNY in 2026 and recovering to 2,454 million CNY in 2027 [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.25 CNY in 2023, increasing to 0.38 CNY in 2025, and then slightly declining to 0.34 CNY in 2026 and 0.35 CNY in 2027 [4]. Company Overview - Hubei Energy is a regional comprehensive energy generation enterprise under the Three Gorges Group, focusing on energy supply across multiple sectors including hydropower, thermal power, new energy, natural gas, coal, and finance [22][25]. - The company has a total installed capacity of 18.33 million kW, with hydropower, thermal power, wind power, and photovoltaic power capacities of 4.57 million kW, 6.63 million kW, 1.25 million kW, and 5.71 million kW respectively [22][30]. Performance Expectations - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 27.1 billion CNY in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 49% due to improved water inflow and the commencement of new thermal power projects [12][20]. - The report anticipates that the company will realize net profits of 24.0 billion CNY and 24.5 billion CNY in 2026 and 2027 respectively [12][20]. Market Position - Hubei Energy is positioned as a leading energy operator in Hubei province, with significant investments in both traditional and renewable energy sectors, ensuring a diversified energy portfolio [22][25].