国信证券晨会纪要-20251217

Macro and Strategy - The report highlights the significant transition of Hainan Free Trade Port, which will officially start its closure operation on December 18, 2025, marking a fundamental shift from a free trade pilot zone to a higher level of openness [6] - It discusses the institutional design of "one line open, one line controlled, and free within the island," emphasizing the dual characteristics of "international benchmarking" and "Chinese characteristics" [6] - The report analyzes direct opportunities in cross-border trade, modern logistics, and duty-free consumption, as well as long-term driving logic in tourism, modern services, and high-tech industries [6] - Investment strategies along the industrial chain are proposed, with a focus on the balance between policy details and risk dynamics [6] Industry and Company - The real estate sector is experiencing a continuous decline in sales volume and price, with investment data for January to November 2025 showing a 15.9% year-on-year decrease in real estate development investment, totaling 78,591 billion [7] - New construction area decreased by 20.5% to 53,457 million square meters, while completed area fell by 18.0% to 39,454 million square meters [7] - New commodity housing sales area dropped by 7.8% to 78,702 million square meters, and sales revenue decreased by 11.1% to 75,130 billion [7] - The report indicates that the funding available to real estate developers has also declined by 11.9% to 85,145 billion [7] - The report suggests that the real estate sector is unlikely to see a clear trend opportunity until housing prices stabilize, recommending a focus on policy dynamics and potential rebounds [7][8]