Bohai Leasing(SZ:000415) GF SECURITIES·2025-12-17 14:51Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a current price of 3.88 CNY and a reasonable value of 4.36 CNY [2]. Core Insights - The company has completed the sale of its container leasing business, resulting in an estimated cash inflow of approximately 12 billion CNY, which will help accelerate the repayment of high-interest debt and reduce financial expenses [9]. - Following the divestiture, the company will focus solely on its aircraft leasing business, positioning it to benefit from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the global supply-demand imbalance in aircraft [9]. - The aircraft leasing fleet is globally leading, with a total of 1,159 aircraft as of Q3 2025, including 601 owned and 522 on order [9]. - The company is expected to see a significant improvement in profit margins due to reduced financial costs and a more streamlined business model [9]. - The earnings forecast for 2025 includes a projected net profit of -135 million CNY, with a recovery expected in subsequent years [8][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 33,675 million CNY in 2023 to 49,115 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 27.8% [8]. - EBITDA is expected to decline to 17,047 million CNY in 2025, with a subsequent recovery [8]. - The company's net profit is forecasted to be -135 million CNY in 2025, with a significant rebound anticipated in 2026 [8]. - The report estimates a book value per share (BVPS) of 4.84 CNY for 2025, applying a reasonable valuation of 0.9x price-to-book (PB) ratio [9].