CHIFENG GOLD(SH:600988) Shanghai Securities·2025-12-18 04:07Group 1: Report General Information - Report Date: December 18, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Wang Hongbing [1] - SAC Number: S0870523060002 [1] - Related Reports: "Analysis of the Allocation Value of Securities ETF", "Analysis of the Allocation Value of Bank ETF", "November Allocation Strategy for Chinese Medicine ETF" [2] Group 2: Core Views - The Golden Stocks ETF (517520.SH) managed by Yongying Fund tracks the CSI Shanghai - Shenzhen - Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock Index (931238.CSI), with the index abbreviation SSH Gold Stocks [3]. - From September 11 to December 12, 2025, the best convergent stock of the Golden Stocks ETF is Chifeng Gold (600988.SH), selected by considering the deviation of constituent stocks from the gold stock index and research coverage [3]. - Chifeng Gold's bottom - valuation in 2024 based on the expected EPS of 2024 was close to 16 times PE. Based on 16 times PE, from 2024 to 2025 (up to December 12, 2025), most of the stock price fluctuations of Chifeng Gold did not exceed the value range defined by the fundamental value of T - 1 year and the expected fundamental value of T + 2 year. As of December 12, 2025, the expected per - share fundamental values of Chifeng Gold from 2025 to 2027 were 26.02, 33.01, and 38.65 yuan respectively, and the closing price was 31.2 yuan per share, still lower than the per - share fundamental value in 2026 [3]. - According to the position of Chifeng Gold's closing price in the expected per - share fundamental value range from 2025 to 2027, the closing position on December 12, 2025 was 58.97% [3]. - From October to December 12, 2025, the Sharpe ratio and return - drawdown ratio of the Golden Stocks ETF based on the dynamic position allocation of Chifeng Gold were better than those of the buy - and - hold strategy. The allocation strategy achieved an end - of - period return of 4.99% with a maximum drawdown of 5.52%, while the buy - and - hold strategy of the Golden Stocks ETF achieved an end - of - period return of - 0.1% with a maximum drawdown of 14.93% [4][11] Group 3: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Golden Stocks ETF Allocation Value Analysis - The Golden Stocks ETF tracks the CSI Shanghai - Shenzhen - Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock Index, and the best convergent stock in the recent 3 months is Chifeng Gold [3][10]. - Chifeng Gold's bottom - valuation in 2024 was 16 times PE, and its stock price fluctuations from 2024 - 2025 (up to December 12, 2025) mostly stayed within the fundamental value range. The expected per - share fundamental values from 2025 - 2027 were 26.02, 33.01, and 38.65 yuan respectively, with a closing price of 31.2 yuan per share on December 12, 2025 [3][10]. - The closing position on December 12, 2025 was 58.97% based on the fundamental value range [3][11]. - From October to December 12, 2025, the dynamic position allocation strategy based on Chifeng Gold outperformed the buy - and - hold strategy in terms of Sharpe ratio and return - drawdown ratio, achieving an end - of - period return of 4.99% with a maximum drawdown of 5.52%, while the buy - and - hold strategy had an end - of - period return of - 0.1% and a maximum drawdown of 14.93% [4][11]