Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" to the company, with a current price of 1.38 HKD and a target value of 1.89 HKD [4]. Core Insights - China Cinda has disclosed significant proposed mergers and acquisitions, which are expected to result in a one-time post-tax gain of approximately 20 billion RMB [1]. - Following the merger, China Cinda will no longer hold any shares in Cinda Securities A-shares and will receive 1.3 billion shares in China International Capital Corporation (CICC), representing about 16.71% of CICC's equity [1]. - The proposed merger is anticipated to generate substantial one-time earnings due to the shift from cost method to fair value accounting for the merger [1]. Financial Forecast - Revenue is projected to decline from 76.17 billion RMB in 2023 to 73.04 billion RMB in 2024, with a slight recovery expected in subsequent years [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to drop significantly from 5.82 billion RMB in 2023 to 3.04 billion RMB in 2024, before rebounding to 3.67 billion RMB in 2025 [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to decrease from 0.11 RMB in 2023 to 0.04 RMB in 2024, with a gradual increase to 0.16 RMB by 2027 [2]. Business Operations - The company has focused on acquiring non-performing assets, with the scale of operational acquisitions increasing year-on-year despite a decline in disposal scale due to economic conditions [8]. - The internal rate of return for operational acquisitions in the first half of 2025 was 8.7%, slightly down from 8.9% in the previous year [8]. - Revenue from acquisition and restructuring business fell by 65.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, indicating a structured exit from these assets [8]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio forecast of 6.32 for 2023, increasing to 24.03 by 2025, before decreasing to 7.87 by 2027 [2]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to rise from 0.17 in 2023 to 0.29 in 2025, then stabilize around 0.25 by 2027 [2].
中国信达（01359）：汇金系券商并购贡献约200亿元收益