2026年玻璃纯碱期货行情展望：玻璃、纯碱：上半年偏弱，下半年或有好转

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Glass: The core contradiction in the glass industry remains weak demand, and significant improvement is unlikely in 2026. If the supply side can significantly contract, the market may reverse. Policy - driven supply contraction is possible, especially in Hubei in the second half of 2026. The key variable in 2026 is still the policy end, and the pattern of rising by expectation and falling by delivery will continue [1][104]. - Soda Ash: High production and high inventory are the core pressures on the soda ash industry. In 2026, there may be nearly 10% incremental production capacity. The industry needs to further reduce production to resolve the dilemma. Key variables in 2026 include export market trends, supply reduction due to low prices, and the resolution of warehouse receipt pressure [2][105]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 Glass and Soda Ash Trend Review - Glass: In 2025, glass was weak. The price of the main contract dropped from 1470 yuan/ton to 950 yuan/ton, a decline of 35.4%. Factory inventory increased, and order volume declined. The market was affected by concerns about the capital situation of real - estate and glass processing enterprises. After a brief rebound in July, the price continued to fall from October [5]. - Soda Ash: In 2025, the soda ash market faced pressure from expanding production capacity and weak downstream demand. The price decreased significantly, with the average price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe dropping by about 33.3% compared to 2024. The industry's capacity utilization rate declined, and inventory remained high. Although exports increased by 101.6% year - on - year as of November, the overall situation was still challenging [6][7]. 3.2 Real Estate Market Creeping Forward with Policy Support but No Boost - In 2026, the real - estate market is still difficult to improve substantially. The potential large - scale interest rate cuts and quantitative easing in the US may help domestic real - estate debt resolution in the second half of 2026. Domestic policies aim to stabilize the market, and although the decline rate of real - estate indicators has slowed, full recovery still takes time [8][9]. 3.3 Demand under Pressure, Supply Changes More Important in 2026 3.3.1 Demand Still under Pressure - Glass Processing: The production of glass deep - processing products decreased. As of October 2025, the cumulative production of tempered glass decreased by 6.8% year - on - year, hollow glass by 9.2%, and LOW - E glass had a low operating rate. The industry is in a negative feedback loop [23][24]. - Regional and Non - standard Arbitrage: Regional spreads narrowed, making regional arbitrage more difficult. Non - standard products, especially small - sized glass, were weak, which affected the non - standard arbitrage in Hebei. Large manufacturers no longer supported prices, and regional competition became more differentiated [34]. 3.3.2 Production Changes as the Future Key Variable - Policy: Since the second half of 2025, central policies have focused on "anti - deflation and anti - involution". The Hubei Ecological Environment Department requires energy transformation of glass kilns by the end of 2026, which may significantly impact the market [41][42]. - Supply - side Market Changes: In 2025, the glass industry's supply was slightly high, and production reduction was not active. In 2026, potential new line ignition and old line restart scale are high, but actual production depends on market demand. If demand remains poor, production reduction may resume in the second half of 2026 [50][52]. - Inventory Differentiation: As of November 2025, national glass factory inventory increased by 33.6% year - on - year, with significant regional differences. Inventory differentiation is due to factors such as proximity to demand, direct sales, and deep - processing capacity expansion. This may lead to further fragmentation of the glass industry [60]. 3.4 Photovoltaic Glass - In 2025, the photovoltaic glass market was volatile. Supply increased in the first half of the year but decreased later due to over - capacity. Demand was affected by trade risks and grid consumption factors. Prices fluctuated throughout the year. In 2026, the market may face pressure in the first half, but the second half is not overly pessimistic [68][69][82]. 3.5 Soda Ash Supply Surplus Pressure Remains High, Price Fluctuation Range May Shrink - Stock Supply Game: In 2025, soda ash supply changes mainly came from stock supply games. In 2026, glass industry production reduction may drive soda ash production reduction. Seasonal maintenance and matching with glass supply are important factors in soda ash supply [87]. - Inventory Structure and Relative Spread Support: In 2025, the soda ash market was supported by almost equal light - heavy spreads and good export performance. Inventory was concentrated, and high - inventory manufacturers took measures to hedge risks. Future export growth and heavy - to - light soda conversion may support the market [92]. - Long - term Trend: The potential new production capacity of soda ash from the end of 2025 to 2026 is 480 - 630 tons, with a potential increase of over 10%. The long - term problem of high production and high inventory needs to be resolved through industry supply clearance [102].