申万宏源证券晨会报告-20251219

Core Insights - The report highlights that the industry investment is expected to stabilize in 2026, supported by the orderly debt resolution of local governments and the implementation of central "dual heavy" projects [4][11] - The company has shown marginal improvement in new contract signings, with a robust backlog ensuring long-term steady growth. The cumulative new contracts from 2021 to 2025 Q1-3 show a mixed trend, with a notable improvement in 2025 [4][11] - The company's balance sheet is continuously improving, with enhanced cash flow and optimized accounts receivable aging structure. Despite revenue and profit pressures, the company has implemented a three-year plan to control financial metrics [4][11] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Fixed asset investment growth has slowed down this year, affecting infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate sectors. However, investment is expected to stabilize in 2026 due to government initiatives [4][11] Company Performance - The company’s new contract signings from 2021 to 2025 Q1-3 are as follows: +10.39% in 2021, +15.09% in 2022, +1.51% in 2023, -7.80% in 2024, and +3.08% in 2025. The backlog of contracts stands at 8.10 trillion RMB, ensuring steady growth [4][11] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 728.4 billion RMB, a decrease of 3.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 14.8 billion RMB, down 5.6% year-on-year [4][11] Financial Metrics - As of December 15, 2025, the company's A-share PE (TTM) is 5.0X and PB is 0.32X, while H-share PE (TTM) is 3.6X and PB is 0.21X, indicating a significant discount for H-shares compared to A-shares [5][11] - The company has distributed cash dividends from 2021 to 2024 amounting to 3.34 billion, 3.80 billion, 4.75 billion, and 4.07 billion RMB, representing 15.37%, 15.91%, 20.18%, and 20.60% of the distributable profits, respectively [5][11] Investment Recommendation - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating, projecting net profits for 2025-2027 to be 21.4 billion, 21.7 billion, and 22.2 billion RMB, respectively. The estimated market value based on 2026 data is 77.9 billion RMB, suggesting a potential upside of 14.7% from the current market cap [6][11]