HHTG(SH:600095) Xiangcai Securities·2025-12-20 14:54Core Insights - The report indicates that the A-share indices experienced a downward trend during the week of December 15-19, 2025, with most indices showing fluctuations [2][11][14] - The decline in A-share indices is attributed to weak macroeconomic data related to investment and consumption, as well as external factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [4][14] - The report anticipates that 2026 will be a pivotal year for China's economic development, with supportive policies expected to foster a favorable environment for industrial upgrades and a "slow bull" market [4][9] Economic Data Summary - Fixed asset investment in China showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.60% for the first eleven months of 2025, marking three consecutive months of negative growth [7][27] - Infrastructure investment has decreased significantly from a high of 11.50% in March 2025 to just 0.13% by November 2025, while manufacturing investment also fell from 9.10% to 1.90% in the same period [7][27] - Real estate development investment has consistently been negative, with a cumulative decline of 15.90% for the first eleven months of 2025 [7][27] Industry Performance Summary - Among the 31 first-level industries, the retail and non-bank financial sectors showed the highest weekly gains of 6.66% and 2.90%, respectively, while the electronics and power equipment sectors faced declines of -3.28% and -3.12% [5][21] - In the second-level industry categories, aerospace equipment II and general retail led with weekly increases of 14.33% and 9.67%, while the film and television sector and other electronics II saw declines of -5.68% and -4.63% [5][24] - The third-level industries saw aerospace equipment III and supermarkets with the highest weekly gains of 14.33% and 14.18%, while the film and animation production sector and photovoltaic processing equipment faced the largest declines of -6.84% and -6.37% [6][26] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a long-term positive outlook for 2026, emphasizing the importance of supportive policies for industrial upgrades and the entry of long-term capital into the market [9][32] - In the short term, it is recommended to focus on sectors benefiting from long-term capital inflows, traditional sectors related to "anti-involution," and consumer areas supported by policy [9][32]