Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-12-21 12:19Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the polysilicon futures price showed a volatile and weakening trend. The core logic guiding the price trend focuses on factors such as supply - side maintenance and shutdown, downstream demand - side production scheduling, anti - involution policies in the photovoltaic industry, and warehouse receipt registration [3]. - From a fundamental perspective, the industry currently shows a feature of "weak supply and weak demand". The polysilicon production has a downward trend, and the downstream silicon wafer, cell, and component production is also under pressure. The polysilicon inventory remains at a recent high, and the terminal demand in the component bidding market is weak. It is expected that the weak - balance state of the fundamentals will continue [3]. - In terms of trading sentiment, the market has reacted to platform companies, and subsequent actual implementation actions need attention. The subsequent trading logic is recommended to be mainly based on the technical logic supported by price trends and volume - energy changes [3]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Fundamental factors: The industry shows "weak supply and weak demand". Supply - side production expansion has slowed down, downstream production is under pressure, inventory is high, and the component bidding market is weak [3]. - Trading logic: Near - end trading logic (before the end of the year) focuses on warehouse receipt registration and supply - demand side reduction and shutdown. Distant - end trading logic (after the end of the year) involves observing the progress of "anti - involution" policies and the implementation of new photovoltaic installed capacity in 2026, as well as downstream and overseas photovoltaic demand [5][6]. 1.2 Industry Operation Suggestions - Polysilicon futures price range: The polysilicon futures price is expected to have wide - range fluctuations, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 28.63% and a historical percentile of 83.6% over three years [8]. - Risk management strategies: Different strategies are proposed for various scenarios such as sales, procurement, and inventory management of polysilicon, silicon wafers, and cells, with recommended hedging ratios ranging from 10% to 40% [8]. Chapter 2: Market Information - On December 12, a 1 - gigawatt photovoltaic power generation project in Wusu City, Xinjiang, started an open tender for engineering procurement and construction (EPC), with a construction period of no more than 360 calendar days [9]. - On December 17, SEG Solar, a US - based solar component manufacturer, started the construction of a 3 - gigawatt monocrystalline silicon and silicon wafer production base in Indonesia, which is expected to expand to 5 gigawatts and be put into operation in Q3 2026. The company has a cumulative photovoltaic component shipment of over 6 gigawatts and a global solar cell installation capacity of 5 gigawatts [9]. - On December 18, *ST Haiyuan announced that its subsidiary would purchase a second - hand 150MW TOPCON photovoltaic component production line and upgrade it to a 300MW production line [9]. Chapter 3: Market Analysis 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Analysis - Market review: The polysilicon weighted index contract closed at 60,521 yuan/ton this week, up 4.84% week - on - week. The trading volume was 362,864 lots, down 19.17% week - on - week, and the open interest was 247,847 lots, down 21,847 lots week - on - week. The PS2602 - PS2605 spread was in a back structure, down 575 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 20 lots week - on - week [13]. - Technical analysis: The polysilicon futures price ran above the 5 - day moving average, showing a "long - position increasing and price rising" feature. It reached the upper edge of the Bollinger Band, and the bandwidth of the Bollinger Band showed a volatile trend [14]. - Option situation: The 20 - day historical volatility and the implied volatility of at - the - money options of polysilicon were in a volatile state. The option open interest PCR was in a volatile and strengthening state, indicating a rising bearish sentiment in the market [16]. - Capital flow: The net long - position scale of key profitable seats in polysilicon showed an increasing sign [18]. - Spread structure: The polysilicon futures term structure showed a phased back structure, and the basis of the main contract showed a volatile and weakening trend [20][23]. 3.2 Futures and Price Data - Polysilicon prices: The prices of N - type polysilicon materials such as N - type re - feeding materials, N - type dense materials, etc., showed little change, with only a slight increase in N - type re - feeding materials by 0.19% week - on - week [26]. - Silicon wafer prices: The silicon wafer price index increased by 2.00% week - on - week, and the prices of some N - type silicon wafers also increased [26]. - Cell and component prices: The prices of some cell and component products showed small changes, with the prices of some Topcon cells increasing by 3.53% - 6.12% week - on - week [26]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis - The overall profitability of polysilicon enterprises is stable. The spot profit of polysilicon shows a stable trend, and the profit of the silane method is higher than that of the improved Siemens method [27]. - From the futures perspective, the gross profit margin of polysilicon futures is about 39.89% under the accounting model with industrial silicon and electricity as the main cost components [27]. Chapter 5: Fundamental Data 5.1 Polysilicon Supply - Domestic production: The domestic polysilicon weekly production decreased, with SMM - reported production at 25,000 tons, down 0.40% week - on - week and 7.75% month - on - month, and Baichuan - reported production at 26,330 tons, down 0.53% week - on - week and 7.35% month - on - month. The Baichuan - reported weekly operating rate was 41%, down 0.0238 week - on - week and 8.89% month - on - month [35]. - Overseas production: Overseas polysilicon monthly production and operating rate data are provided, showing certain trends [37]. - Inventory: The domestic polysilicon weekly inventory was 512,000 tons, with a slight decrease of 0.03% week - on - week but an increase of 2.08% month - on - month. The inventory of production enterprises increased, while that of silicon wafer enterprises decreased [40]. 5.2 Silicon Wafer Supply - Production and inventory: The domestic silicon wafer weekly production was 10.67GW, down 12.18% week - on - week and 16.51% month - on - month. The weekly inventory was 21.5GW, down 7.73% week - on - week but up 14.85% month - on - month [43]. - Export: Data on the monthly net export of domestic silicon wafers are provided, showing seasonal trends [46]. 5.3 Cell Supply - Production and inventory: The monthly production and operating rate data of domestic cells are provided, showing seasonal trends. The weekly inventory of photovoltaic cells was 9.44GW, up 4.08% week - on - week but down 7.54% month - on - month [50][53]. - Export: Data on the monthly export of domestic photovoltaic cells are provided [52]. 5.4 Photovoltaic Component Supply - Production and inventory: The monthly production and operating rate data of photovoltaic components are provided, showing seasonal trends. The weekly inventory of photovoltaic components was 31.2GW, up 2.63% week - on - week and 2.97% month - on - month [56][59]. - Export: Data on the monthly net export of photovoltaic components are provided [58]. 5.5 Bidding - The weekly data of photovoltaic component winning bids show that the winning bid capacity was 4,322.84MW, up 162.03% week - on - week and 439.36% month - on - month, and the winning bid average price was 0.76 yuan/watt, up 2.70% week - on - week and 5.56% month - on - month [61]. 5.6 Installation and Application - Data on the monthly new installed capacity of domestic photovoltaics, green power generation, and the proportion of photovoltaic power generation in green power are provided, showing seasonal trends [64][67].