南华期货棉花2026年度展望：紧平衡预期下?帆待举

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The current new - season Xinjiang cotton harvest is abundant, and domestic commercial inventories have rapidly rebounded. In the short term, there is still supply and hedging pressure above. However, based on the low inventory from the previous year and the expected low imports in the new year, the overall increase in domestic supply in the new year has narrowed. Downstream, domestic spinning capacity has expanded, Xinjiang yarn mills have maintained high - load operations, and the rigid demand for cotton consumption has increased. Domestic demand shows a moderate growth trend supported by macro - policies. At the same time, the reduction of Sino - US tariffs is conducive to the recovery of China's textile and clothing exports, supporting domestic cotton consumption. The supply - demand outlook for domestic cotton in the new year is expected to be tight, and the center of cotton prices is expected to rise. Attention should be paid to whether the Xinjiang target price subsidy policy will be adjusted next year, as the area of new - season Xinjiang cotton is still variable. The predicted range for Zhengzhou cotton is around 13,500 - 15,500 yuan/ton [1][37]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Zhengzhou Cotton: In 2025, Zhengzhou cotton fell rapidly in the second quarter and then rebounded, fluctuating in the range of 13,200 - 14,300 yuan/ton with low volatility. At the beginning of the year, domestic textile enterprises replenished raw materials rigidly at low prices, but with high cotton inventories, cotton prices fluctuated. During the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, due to the significant increase in US foreign tariffs, Zhengzhou cotton dropped sharply, but after the Sino - US talks, the tariff policy was postponed, and cotton prices rebounded. With low domestic imported cotton and better - than - expected downstream demand, Xinjiang cotton destocked quickly, and the year - end inventory was low, so cotton prices were strong. However, with the upcoming new cotton listing and a large number of pre - sales for the new year, ginneries hedged in advance under the expectation of a bumper Xinjiang cotton harvest, and cotton prices fell before the acquisition period, then fluctuated slightly with the new - season output expectation [1]. - US Cotton: In 2025, US cotton fluctuated narrowly in the range of 63 - 70 cents/pound. At the beginning of the year, the export progress of the 24/25 US cotton season was slow, and the unpriced purchase contracts and non - commercial short positions were high, with significant upward pressure. After the implementation of the US import tariff increase policy, cotton prices tested down to around 60 cents/pound, but after the annual export target was completed, cotton prices recovered. Then, US cotton fluctuated narrowly under the expectations of slow export contracts and a decline in new - cotton output. With the upward adjustment of the global output expectation, the global cotton supply - demand outside China was loose, and the trend of US cotton was weakening [6]. 3.2 Core Concerns 3.2.1 Xinjiang Cotton Output Reaches a New High, Pay Attention to Next Year's Policy Adjustment - Output: The new - season Xinjiang cotton output is expected to be high. The initial national estimate is that the average yield per mu in Xinjiang is 171.8 kg, an increase of 3.7% year - on - year, and the output is 704.7 tons, an increase of 12.2% year - on - year. The national total cotton output is expected to be 740.9 tons, an increase of 11.0% year - on - year. The current market mainstream estimates that Xinjiang's output has increased to 730 - 750 tons, and the China Cotton Information Network has adjusted the national output expectation to 767.9 tons, an increase of 12% year - on - year, with Xinjiang's output increasing to 736.9 tons. As of December 15, 2025, the national new - season cotton notarized inspection volume was 544.05 tons, an increase of 13.89% year - on - year [8]. - Acquisition: This year, there are 1069 target - price reform processing enterprises in Xinjiang. The cotton processing capacity is still in excess, but ginneries have low risk preferences, and the new - cotton acquisition price is relatively stable. There were many pre - sales of new cotton this year, and the sales speed was fast. Some enterprises hedged in advance, causing Zhengzhou cotton to fall before the National Day, and the overall new - cotton acquisition price was low. The acquisition price in southern Xinjiang is slightly higher than that in northern Xinjiang, and there is still some high - cost new cotton in southern Xinjiang to be hedged [8][10]. - Policy: This year is the last year of the 18,600 yuan/ton target - price subsidy policy for cotton. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the subsidy policy next year and its impact on farmers' enthusiasm for cotton planting [10]. 3.2.2 Imports Remain Low, Quota Supply is Limited - Import Volume: From January to November 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 900,000 tons, a decrease of 1.6 million tons year - on - year, and cumulative棉纱 imports were 1.33 million tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons year - on - year. The domestic - foreign cotton price difference has been at a relatively high level, and the import profit is considerable, but the import quota is limited. The 1% import tariff quota for cotton in 2026 remains at 894,000 tons, plus the additional 200,000 - ton sliding - scale tariff quota issued at the end of August 2025. The probability of further increasing the cotton import quota is low, and the new - year import volume is expected to be around 1.1 million tons, similar to the 24/25 season [13]. 3.2.3 Demand is Resilient, Pay Attention to Policy Support - Domestic Demand: From January to November 2025, the retail sales of domestic clothing, footwear, needles, and textiles totaled 1.37029 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.91% year - on - year. Since August, the year - on - year growth rate of domestic textile and clothing retail sales has exceeded that of social consumer goods retail sales. The China Cotton Textile PMI has been rising since the third quarter and returned above the boom - bust line in October. In the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, domestic textile enterprises' order - receiving situation improved later. With the decline in cotton prices, spinning profits were repaired, and downstream product destocking was good. The expansion of Xinjiang's spinning capacity and the high - load operation of yarn mills have increased the rigid demand for cotton. With the continuous influence of consumption - promotion policies next year, domestic terminal textile and clothing sales are expected to maintain a moderate growth trend [18][19]. - Export Demand: From January to November 2025, China's total textile and clothing export volume was 267.853 billion US dollars, a decrease of 2.09% year - on - year. Since July, exports have declined continuously. After the Sino - US summit in October, the US tariff policy was adjusted, which is beneficial to China's textile and clothing exports. In November, exports rebounded month - on - month. From January to October 2025, China's cotton - product exports totaled 55.086 billion US dollars, a decrease of 6.45% year - on - year, and the export volume was 6.1442 million tons, an increase of 7.76% year - on - year, showing a "quantity - for - price" situation, which still supports cotton consumption [22][23]. 3.2.4 Low Cotton - Grain Price Ratio in the US, Slow Cotton Export Progress - Output: In the 25/26 season, due to the low cotton - grain price ratio in the US, the cotton - planting area decreased. However, the drought in Texas has been significantly alleviated, the national cotton abandonment rate has decreased by 5.28 percentage points to 20.7%, and the yield per mu has increased by 4.9% to 69.4 kg. The USDA predicts that the US cotton output in the 25/26 season will be 3.106 million tons, a decrease of 1% year - on - year. If the cotton - grain price ratio remains low before the planting season next year, it may further suppress farmers' enthusiasm for cotton planting [25]. - Export: As of November 20, 2025, the US's cumulative net export contracts for 25/26 - season cotton were 1.306 million tons, a decrease of 262,000 tons year - on - year, reaching 49.16% of the annual expected export volume. China's cumulative import contracts for 25/26 - season US cotton were only 39,000 tons, a decrease of 112,000 tons year - on - year. Vietnam's cumulative import contracts were 379,000 tons, accounting for 29.02% of the contracted US cotton. Pakistan's cumulative import contracts were 138,000 tons, accounting for 10.57% of the contracted US cotton. US cotton exports have been affected by high tariffs, and the export progress has been slow. In the future, with the competition from Brazilian cotton exports, attention should be paid to changes in US foreign tariff policies [30]. 3.2.5 Abundant Foreign New - Cotton Supply, Loose Global Supply - Demand Outlook According to the USDA's December global cotton supply - demand report, the global cotton output in the 25/26 season is expected to be 26.081 million tons, an increase of 111,000 tons year - on - year. China and Brazil continue to increase production, and the US's production decline is narrower than previously expected. The global cotton output is at a relatively high historical level. The global cotton consumption is expected to be 25.823 million tons, a decrease of 71,000 tons year - on - year. The global cotton ending inventory is expected to be 16.541 million tons, an increase of 296,000 tons year - on - year. The global cotton supply - demand pattern is loose. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of trade policies between countries and the impact of US interest - rate cuts on terminal consumption [35]. 3.3 Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook The new - season Xinjiang cotton harvest is abundant, and domestic commercial inventories have rebounded rapidly. In the short term, there is supply and hedging pressure. However, due to the low inventory in the previous year and the expected low imports in the new year, the increase in domestic supply has narrowed. Downstream demand is strong, and domestic cotton consumption is supported. The new - year domestic cotton supply - demand is expected to be tight, and cotton prices are expected to rise. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the Xinjiang target - price subsidy policy next year, as the area of new - season Xinjiang cotton is still variable [37].