铝产业链周报-20251222

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the aluminum industry are weak, with domestic downstream demand entering the off - season and the开工 rate under pressure. Although the macro - atmosphere is good and many non - ferrous metals have risen, and technically, LME aluminum has broken through the resistance level, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to strengthen the wait - and - see for both Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum alloy [4][5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly View - Fundamental Analysis: Domestic and foreign bauxite prices are expected to continue to decline under pressure. Alumina operating capacity remains stable, while electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increases slightly. The downstream demand is weak, and the overall demand is in the off - season. The inventory of aluminum ingots supports the aluminum price, and the demand for recycled cast aluminum alloy is gradually slowing down. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [4] - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to strengthen the wait - and - see for both Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum alloy [5] 3.2 Macro - economic Indicators - The content mainly presents charts of US Treasury bond yields, the US dollar index, and RMB exchange rates, but no specific analysis is provided 3.3 Bauxite - Shanxi bauxite prices are temporarily stable, while Henan bauxite prices have dropped significantly. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea bulk ore has decreased by $0.6 per dry ton week - on - week to $69.9 per dry ton. Imported ore prices are expected to continue to decline due to increased supply, and $70 per dry ton is the key negotiation price for 2025 long - term contracts [11] 3.4 Alumina - As of last Friday, the alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons (unchanged week - on - week), the operating capacity was 95.9 million tons (unchanged week - on - week), and the operating rate was 83.6%. The domestic spot weighted price was 2724.8 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 28.5 yuan/ton. The national alumina inventory was 458.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 102,000 tons. Alumina enterprises have a strong willingness to maintain stable production [14] 3.5 Alumina Important High - frequency Data - The content presents charts of alumina basis, port inventory, north - south price difference, and external transportation volume, without specific analysis 3.6 Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 45.302 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 30,000 tons; the operating capacity was 44.494 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 30,000 tons. Some enterprises have reduced production for technological transformation, while new production capacity such as Tianshan Aluminum and Zha Aluminum is gradually being put into operation [23] 3.7 Electrolytic Aluminum Important High - frequency Data - The content presents charts of aluminum import profit, Shanghai aluminum forward curve, aluminum rod processing fee, and动力煤 prices, without specific analysis 3.8 Inventory - The content presents charts of aluminum rod social inventory, aluminum ingot social inventory, SHFE aluminum futures inventory, and LME aluminum inventory, without specific analysis 3.9 Cast Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises remained stable at 59.8% week - on - week. Since mid - December, the orders of downstream die - casting enterprises have weakened, and demand has gradually slowed down. Environmental protection control in Chongqing has also restricted the recovery of the local operating rate [35] 3.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy Important High - frequency Data - The content presents charts of aluminum profile prices, aluminum alloy futures forward curve, ADC12 - A00 price difference seasonal trend, and ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot import profit, without specific analysis 3.11 and 3.12 Downstream开工 - The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.3% week - on - week to 61.5%. The operating rate of aluminum profile leading enterprises decreased by 1.4% week - on - week to 51.6%, and the operating rate of aluminum plate and strip leading enterprises remained stable at 65%. The operating rate of domestic cable leading enterprises has a pattern of strong expectations but weak reality, and the operating rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises remained stable at 60% week - on - week [47][51]