XUEDA(SZ:000526) China Post Securities·2025-12-22 09:08Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the benchmark index within the next six months [12]. Core Insights - The company is deepening its vocational education layout and experiencing steady growth in its training business. It has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with local government and educational institutions to create a comprehensive platform for talent cultivation and social services [5][6]. - The vocational education sector is expected to benefit from increasing government emphasis, with the market size projected to grow from 1.5 trillion yuan in 2025 to 2.1 trillion yuan by 2030. The company has established a robust vocational education business system covering various educational levels and training [6]. - The demand for personalized tutoring in junior and senior high school education remains strong, supported by a growing student population. The company’s focus on this demographic is expected to provide growth opportunities in the short term [7]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for the company are as follows: 34 billion yuan in 2025, 41 billion yuan in 2026, and 47 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 2.53 billion yuan, 3.04 billion yuan, and 3.66 billion yuan respectively. The expected earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.07 yuan, 2.49 yuan, and 3.00 yuan for the same years [8][10]. - The company’s financial metrics indicate a steady growth trajectory, with revenue growth rates of 25.9% in 2024, 21.7% in 2025, and gradually decreasing to 15.95% by 2027 [11]. Market Position - The company has a total market capitalization of 4.8 billion yuan and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25.71, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to its earnings [4]. - The company’s debt-to-asset ratio stands at 79%, reflecting a significant level of leverage in its capital structure [4]. Summary of Financial Metrics - Key financial metrics for the upcoming years include: - Revenue: 27.86 billion yuan in 2024, increasing to 47.11 billion yuan by 2027 - Net profit: 1.80 billion yuan in 2024, projected to reach 3.66 billion yuan by 2027 - EPS: Expected to grow from 1.47 yuan in 2024 to 3.00 yuan in 2027 [10][11].