神火股份（000933）：煤铝共振，如日方升

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][10]. Core Insights - The company, Shenhuo Co., Ltd., is a leading producer of electrolytic aluminum and coal in China, with a significant integrated supply chain advantage [7][19]. - The electrolytic aluminum sector is expected to experience strong profitability due to limited new capacity and increasing demand from traditional and new energy sectors [10][55]. - The coal business is recovering, with a focus on high-quality coking coal production, benefiting from regional advantages and regulatory constraints on supply [10][19]. - The company has a high return on equity (ROE) and dividend yield, indicating strong financial health and potential for increased shareholder returns [10][17]. - The company's valuation is lower than comparable firms, suggesting significant upside potential [10][17]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Shenhuo Co., Ltd. was established in 1998 and is primarily engaged in the production and sale of aluminum products and coal, with a total electrolytic aluminum capacity of 1.7 million tons per year [7][19]. - The company has substantial coal reserves, with 1.309 billion tons of total reserves and 605 million tons of recoverable reserves [7][19]. Aluminum Sector - The supply of electrolytic aluminum is constrained by government policies, with a production ceiling of 45 million tons, leading to a favorable pricing environment [44][51]. - Demand for aluminum is expected to grow, driven by traditional sectors like construction and emerging sectors such as electric vehicles and solar energy [55]. Coal Sector - The company produces high-quality coking coal, with annual production capacities of 3.45 million tons of smokeless coal and 5.1 million tons of lean coal [7][19]. - The coal market is stabilizing, with prices expected to recover due to regulatory measures limiting supply [10][19]. Financial Performance - The company's total revenue is projected to grow from 37.625 billion yuan in 2023 to 40.653 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit forecasted to increase from 5.905 billion yuan to 5.291 billion yuan in the same period [9]. - The company's ROE is expected to remain high, with a TTM ROE of 17.8% as of Q3 2025, indicating strong profitability [10][17]. Valuation Metrics - As of December 19, 2025, the company's PE ratio is 11.2, lower than the average of comparable companies at 13.3 [10][17]. - The company has a dividend payout ratio of 41.6%, with a dividend yield of approximately 3%, positioning it favorably among industry peers [10][17].