Muyuan Foods (SZ:002714) Xin Ji Yuan Qi Huo·2025-12-22 10:57Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the global soybean supply is expected to remain loose. The price of US soybeans is still restricted by the global supply, while Brazil's soybean production is at a record - high level and Argentina's supply is sufficient. The implementation of the soybean purchase agreement will be a key factor affecting US soybean exports and price structure. The La Niña phenomenon may affect South American yields, and weather changes need to be monitored [2][77]. - China's soybean imports are expected to reach a new high in 2026, with a "low - first - then - high" supply rhythm. The soybean meal market is expected to continue the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the upward price space is limited [2][77]. - The pig production capacity is slowly being reduced. In the first half of 2026, the supply pressure of live pigs remains high, and prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. The speed of production capacity reduction will be the key to the pig price trend in the second half of the year [2][78]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - 2025 Bean Market: The 2025 bean market was mainly affected by trade relations, domestic soybean arrival rhythm, US soybean producing area weather and export expectations. The prices of domestic and foreign markets showed significant differentiation in March, and the price of US soybeans rebounded at the end of October, driving up the domestic soybean meal price [4]. - Q1: The domestic and foreign markets showed an initial differentiation, with the domestic market being stronger. The USDA report was bullish at the beginning of the year, and the price of US soybeans rebounded. The domestic soybean meal price was supported by the pre - Spring Festival stocking demand. The domestic and foreign markets began to diverge at the end of March [6]. - Q2: The supply pressure became prominent, and the price was under pressure. The domestic supply pressure increased significantly after May, and the soybean meal price lacked upward momentum. The US soybean market was supported by weather speculation and other factors [6]. - Q3: The US soybeans fluctuated in a range, and the domestic market was driven by costs. The price of US soybeans fell below 1000 cents in July and rebounded in August. The domestic soybean meal price was slightly boosted by import costs [6]. - Q4: Driven by trade sentiment, the price bottomed out and rebounded. The improvement of Sino - US relations significantly boosted the export expectations of US soybeans, driving up the domestic soybean meal price [7]. - 2025 Pig Market: The 2025 pig market was affected by factors such as over - capacity, policy expectations, second - fattening sentiment and slaughter rhythm, showing a pattern of fluctuating downward and weak rebound [8][10]. - Q1: The demand was strong first and then weak, and the pig price fluctuated weakly. The pig price was relatively strong before the Spring Festival and then fell. The second - fattening and barring sentiment led to a rebound in the pig price in late February [11]. - Q2: The policy guidance began to appear, and the price first rose and then fell. The pig price rebounded in April and then fell in May. The second - fattening replenishment enthusiasm increased in June, and the pig price stopped falling and stabilized [11]. - Q3: The supply - demand imbalance intensified, and the spot and futures markets diverged. The pig price soared in July due to supply reduction and policy factors, and then fluctuated and fell in August. The futures market moved down in September [12]. - Q4: After the National Day, the demand entered the off - season, and the pig price fell sharply and then rebounded slightly. The futures market was under pressure and fluctuated at a low level [12]. 2. International Soybean Market Supply Analysis - USDA Report: The global soybean supply continues to be in a loose pattern. In the 2025/26 season, the global soybean production is estimated to be 423 million tons, with the ending inventory increasing by 4 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio has increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [16]. - US: The 2025/26 US soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio is 6.74%, and the supply - demand fundamentals have been tightening in recent years. The short - term price has a bottom support, but the upward space is limited by the global supply [17][18]. - South America: The production data of South American soybeans remains unchanged in December. Brazil's production is expected to be 175 million tons, and Argentina's is 48.5 million tons. The overall supply remains loose, but South American weather is still a key concern [19]. - Brazil: The soybean sowing is coming to an end, and the production is expected to reach a record high. Multiple institutions predict that the 2025/26 production will be between 175 - 178 million tons. In 2025, the export volume reached a record high, and it is expected to continue to rise in 2026. The La Niña phenomenon may pose a threat to the yield [20][21]. - Argentina: The sowing progress is accelerating. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange expects the 2025/26 production to be 48.5 million tons. The export tax has been reduced, and the export is expected to reach a six - year high [23][24]. - US: The soybean harvest is basically over, and the production is at a historical high. The weekly export volume has decreased month - on - month, but the cumulative year - on - year increase has continued to expand. The short - term export demand is still strong. The medium - and long - term export situation needs to pay attention to the impact of trade relations on trade flows. The soybean crushing volume in October set a new record, and it is expected to remain at a high level in the short term [27][28]. - Trade Relations: The Sino - US trade relations have entered a new stage of "transaction - based management". The stable trade of soybeans has become the balance of bilateral relations, but the structural contradictions have not been resolved. In 2026, trade relations are no longer the main trading line, but short - term disturbances still exist [31][34]. - La Niña Disturbance: The probability of a weak La Niña phenomenon in the next three months is 55%. The main impact is on South America, with the risk of reduced production in Argentina being the greatest. The actual weather conditions in South America and the intensity and duration of La Niña are the focus of the market [35][36]. 3. Domestic Soybean Market Supply - Demand Analysis - Soybean Imports: In 2025, China's soybean imports are expected to exceed 110 million tons for the first time, showing a "stable - first - then - high" pattern. In 2026, imports are expected to continue to grow, with a "low - first - then - high" rhythm, and the import value growth rate may continue to be lower than the import volume growth rate. The import scale of US soybeans depends on Sino - US trade relations [40][42]. - Soybean Crushing: In 2025, the national soybean crushing volume reached a historical high, showing a "low - first - then - high" pattern. The crushing profit showed a "high - first - then - low" and fluctuating downward trend. In 2026, the crushing industry is expected to continue to operate at a high level, but the growth rate will slow down, with a "low - first - then - high" seasonal rhythm [44][45]. - Soybean Meal Inventory: In 2025, the soybean meal inventory showed a "tight - first - then - loose" pattern. In 2026, if the arrival is uniform, the soybean meal supply will be slightly looser than in 2025. The inventory may bottom out in March - April and then gradually recover [46]. - Demand: In 2025, the trading volume of soybean meal fluctuated greatly. The overall demand for the breeding industry is stable, and the proportion of soybean meal added in feed continues to decline. In 2026, the demand for soybean meal will show the characteristics of "stable total demand and decreasing addition ratio", and the demand growth rate is expected to be lower than the feed production growth rate [48][52]. 4. Pig Market Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply: - Price Decline: Since 2025, the domestic pig price has been in a downward trend, and the prices of binary sows and piglets have also declined to varying degrees [56]. - Capacity Regulation: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has strengthened the regulation of pig production capacity, and listed companies in the pig - breeding industry have actively responded. As of October 2025, the inventory of breeding sows has declined to 39.9 million, and the production capacity reduction has accelerated [57][60]. - Low Import Willingness: The domestic pork supply is sufficient, and the import willingness of downstream purchasers and importers is weak. The pork import volume in October 2025 reached the lowest level of the year [66]. - Profit Loss: In 2025, the pig - breeding profit changed from profit to loss. In the first half of 2026, the pig supply is expected to be high, and the profit may continue to be under pressure. If the production capacity is significantly reduced in the second half of the year, the price and profit may recover [68]. - Weakening of Second - Fattening Impact: In the second half of 2025, policies restricted second - fattening, and leading enterprises responded actively. The influence of second - fattening on pig prices has weakened significantly, and the pig price trend is expected to be smoother in 2026 [69][72]. - Demand: In 2025, the pig demand showed typical seasonal characteristics. In the second half of the year, the terminal consumption recovered strongly, but the upward space of pig prices was restricted by the supply. In 2026, the pig market will continue the complex supply - demand game, and the short - term price may face a callback risk, while the medium - and long - term consumption growth space is limited [74][75]. 5. Summary and Outlook - Soybean Meal: With a loose global supply and accumulating domestic inventory, the overall upward space is limited. Attention should be paid to marginal variables such as South American weather speculation and the implementation of the Sino - US procurement agreement [77][78]. - Pigs: In the first half of the year, the supply pressure remains high, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Attention can be paid to the rebound opportunities brought by the seasonal consumption recovery, and the process of production capacity reduction and the effect of policy guidance should be closely monitored [78].