Holly Futures(SZ:001236) Hong Ye Qi Huo·2025-12-22 11:24Report Information - Report Title: Steel Weekly Report 20251222 [2] - Report Type: Steel Industry Research - Analysts: Zhou Guisheng, Duan Yiwen [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The steel market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, with steel prices fluctuating. The profitability of steel mills remains low, iron - water production continues to decline, and there is a transfer of iron - water production. Although the demand for rebar has rebounded, it will still weaken in the off - season. The inventory is being depleted, but the hot - rolled coil inventory still has pressure, with the fundamentals not improving and the end - user demand remaining weak. In the short term, the market will fluctuate [5][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Product Analysis - Supply: Rebar production increased, with the weekly production of major steel mills in the country reaching 181.68 tons (+2.9). Hot - rolled coil production decreased significantly, with a weekly production of 291.91 tons (-16.8) [5]. - Demand: Steel demand is seasonally weak. Last week, the apparent demand for rebar was 208.64 tons (+5.55), and that for hot - rolled coil was 298.28 tons (-13.69) [5]. - Inventory: Steel inventory is being depleted, but the hot - rolled coil inventory is depleting at a slower pace. The total rebar inventory is 452.54 tons (-26.96), the social inventory is 313 tons (-25.7), and the steel - mill inventory is 139.54 tons (-1.26). The total hot - rolled coil inventory is 390.72 tons (-6.37), the social inventory is 307.3 tons (-5.76), and the steel - mill inventory is 83.42 tons (-0.61) [5]. - Basis: The basis has narrowed. The basis of the rebar main contract is 181 yuan/ton (-29), and that of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 1 yuan/ton (-7) [5]. - Summary: The profitability rate of steel mills is 35.93%. Iron - water production continues to decline to 226.55 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.65 tons. The blast - furnace operating rate is 78.47%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16%. The blast - furnace capacity utilization rate is 84.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.99%. The EAF operating rate is 69.23%, a week - on - week increase of 1.5%. The EAF capacity utilization rate is 54.34%, a week - on - week increase of 1.57% [5]. 2. Price Information - As of December 19, the average price of rebar in major cities across the country is 3325 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 36 yuan/ton. The average price of hot - rolled coils across the country is 3296 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 12 yuan/ton [11]. 3. Raw Material Analysis - The cost side still has support. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1480 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 50), the price of main coking coal in Lvliang is 1500 yuan/ton (a week - on - week decrease of 5), and the price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port is 795 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 13) [19]. 4. Production - Related Data - Iron - water production continues to decline, while the EAF operating rate is rising. The operating rate of blast furnaces in Tangshan has increased. As of December 19, the operating rate of blast furnaces in Tangshan is 92.71%, a week - on - week increase of 0.9% [22][32]. 5. Demand - Related Data - Rebar demand has rebounded, while hot - rolled coil demand has decreased significantly. As of December 19, the weekly average trading volume of rebar is 9.92 tons, and that of hot - rolled coil is 3.03 tons. The downstream cold - rolled production is 86.09 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22 tons [42][48][53]. 6. Inventory Data - The inventory of main steel products has decreased. As of December 19, the billet inventory in Tangshan is 69.75 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.09 tons. The inventory of main steel products is 906.69 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 35.29 tons [57]. 7. Export and Downstream Industry Data - Export: In November, steel exports were 998 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.78 tons. From January to November, the cumulative steel export volume was 107.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. In November, hot - rolled coil exports were 183.03 tons [69]. - Automobile Industry: In November, automobile production was 3.532 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 173,300 vehicles. Automobile sales were 3.429 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 106,900 tons. In November, new - energy vehicle production was 1.88 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 108,000 vehicles. New - energy vehicle sales were 1.823 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 108,000 tons [73]. - Real Estate Industry: From January to November, real - estate investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in new housing construction area was 20.5%, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in housing completion area was 18%, the year - on - year decrease in commercial housing sales area was 7.8%, the year - on - year decrease in commercial housing sales volume was 11.1%, and the year - on - year decrease in available funds was 11.9% [76].