海南封关叠加旺季红利，重点关注免税板块

Investment Rating - The report assigns an investment rating of "Positive" for the duty-free industry, indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the benchmark [2][8]. Core Insights - The Hainan Free Trade Port officially commenced its full island closure operations on December 18, 2025, which directly benefits the offshore duty-free consumption sector. On the first day of closure, the offshore duty-free shopping amount reached 161 million yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 61% [2]. - The closure policy has significantly boosted the tourism market in Hainan, with flight bookings to Haikou and Sanya seeing year-on-year increases of 19% and 51% respectively during the New Year period in 2026. International flight orders to Haikou increased by over 40%, with sales doubling for the Spring Festival [2]. - The average transaction value for offshore duty-free shopping has been steadily increasing since September 2025, with sales figures for September, October, and November reaching 17.33 billion, 24.25 billion, and 23.79 billion yuan respectively, showing a continuous year-on-year growth [2]. - China Duty Free Group (CDFG) holds a dominant position in the Hainan duty-free market, with a market share of 82% in 2024. On the first day of the closure, CDFG's sales in Hainan reached 250 million yuan, a 90% increase year-on-year, highlighting its leading value in the industry [2]. Summary by Sections Event Overview - The report highlights the official launch of the full island closure operation in Hainan, which is expected to bring policy benefits to the offshore duty-free consumption sector [2]. Market Performance - The offshore duty-free sales have been breaking records since the closure, with significant sales figures and growth rates observed in various product categories such as cosmetics, electronics, and high-end accessories [2]. Policy Impact - The expansion of tax-free product categories from 1,900 to 6,600 items has increased the proportion of tax-free goods by nearly 53 percentage points, enhancing the attractiveness of the duty-free shopping experience [2]. Company Focus - The report suggests focusing on key players in the duty-free sector, including China Duty Free Group, Wangfujing, Hainan Airport, and Zhuhai Duty-Free Group, which are well-positioned to benefit from the evolving market dynamics [3].