Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company, marking its first coverage [1][2]. Core Insights - The company is a leading mid-priced beverage enterprise in China, focusing on high-quality, affordable drinks. Revenue is projected to grow from CNY 2.2 billion in 2022 to CNY 3.28 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of approximately 22% [1][2]. - The Chinese ready-to-drink beverage market is valued at over CNY 510 billion in 2023, with sustained double-digit growth. The market for freshly brewed coffee and tea is expected to grow significantly, indicating ample room for expansion [1][2]. - The company has launched over 300 new products and established a robust supply chain, contributing to its rapid store expansion from 5,307 in 2022 to 9,176 by 2024 [1][2]. Company Overview - The company, known as "沪上阿姨," has evolved from a local brand to a national leader in the ready-to-drink tea market, with a focus on high cost-performance products. It operates under three brand matrices: "沪上阿姨," "沪咖," and "茶瀑布," catering to various price segments [10][11]. - The company has experienced significant growth, with its store count increasing from 5,307 in 2022 to 9,176 in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 31.5% [28][31]. Industry Analysis - The ready-to-drink beverage industry in China is expanding rapidly, with a projected market size of CNY 1 trillion by 2028. The mid-price segment is expected to capture the largest market share, driven by consumer preferences for quality and affordability [1][2]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growth of the ready-to-drink beverage market, particularly in lower-tier cities where market penetration remains low [1][2]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for the company are CNY 4 billion in 2025, CNY 4.6 billion in 2026, and CNY 5.5 billion in 2027, with corresponding net profits of CNY 505 million, CNY 578 million, and CNY 694 million [2][20]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong operating capability and market share, justifying a valuation premium with projected P/E ratios of 18x, 15x, and 13x for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [1][2].
沪上阿姨（02589）：深度报告：从弄堂五谷香到万店版图，凭多品牌矩阵促规模扩张