西部证券晨会纪要-20251223

Group 1: Company Overview - The report predicts the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 57.52 billion, 67.48 billion, and 80.84 billion yuan respectively, with EPS of 3.03, 3.56, and 4.26 yuan, and PE ratios of 21, 18, and 15 times, respectively [1][5][6] - The target price for the company is set at 78.98 yuan per share, with a "Buy" rating assigned for the first coverage [1][5] Group 2: Nickel Market Analysis - Nickel prices are currently at a bottom level, with expectations of a cyclical turning point around 2027-2028, supported by significant investment scales in nickel projects that create financial and scale barriers [6][5] - The company has established a full industry chain layout from nickel ore to nickel intermediate products and nickel products, showcasing its core competitive advantages [6][5] Group 3: Cobalt Market Analysis - Cobalt supply is concentrated in the Democratic Republic of Congo, with significant policy disruptions affecting supply, while demand from sectors like electric vehicles and consumer electronics is steadily increasing [6][5] - The report anticipates that cobalt industry overcapacity will significantly ease by 2025, and the company's cobalt product business is expected to maintain or even increase its gross margin during periods of declining cobalt prices [6][5] Group 4: Battery Materials Outlook - The report highlights the potential for solid-state batteries to increase the market share of ternary materials, which are expected to see improved profitability due to upstream raw material security and downstream customer binding [7][5] - The company's ternary precursor and cathode materials business is projected to maintain industry-leading profitability, with a strong position expected to be reinforced as new projects come online [7][5] Group 5: Industry Trends - The industrial added value in China showed a year-on-year growth of 4.8% in November, indicating a stable economic development trend [9][10] - The U.S. CPI for November was reported at 2.7%, lower than expected, which has raised expectations for monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [10][11]