PA联盟上半月价格预计逐步调整，02合约博弈运价见顶时间

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The PA Alliance's prices are expected to be adjusted gradually in the first half - month, and the EC2602 contract is in a situation where the peak time of freight rates is being speculated. The 12 - contract is expected to fluctuate, while the 2 - month contract is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward bias [1][6][9] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Price - As of December 23, 2025, the closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2602 contract is 1806.60, EC2604 contract is 1158.00, EC2606 contract is 1331.70, EC2608 contract is 1480.00, EC2610 contract is 1052.00, and EC2512 contract is 1606.00. The 12 - contract is expected to oscillate, and the 02 - contract will gradually follow the real - world quotes, with the current speculation point being whether the first half - month of January is the end of this round of freight rate increase [6][8][9] 3.2 Spot Price - Online quotes from different shipping alliances and companies vary. For example, in the Gemini Cooperation, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam quotes changed from 1580/2540 in the first week of January to 1560/2500 in the second week; HPL's price increased from 1535/2535 in the second half of December to 2135/3535 in the first half of January. Other alliances and companies also have corresponding price changes [1] 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - In December, the remaining 2 - week monthly average capacity is 314,500 TEU, with capacities of 301,000/327,900 TEU in WEEK52/53 respectively. In January, the monthly average capacity is 304,600 TEU, and in February, it is 284,700 TEU. There are also empty - sailings and TBNs in different months and alliances. In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries, with 250 ships delivered and a total capacity of 2.018 million TEU [4][8] 3.4 Supply Chain - Geopolitically, Israel's remarks on building settlements in the Gaza Strip may damage the peace - making efforts and the cooperation intention of Arab countries. The Shanghai International Energy Exchange plans to revise the "Shanghai International Energy Exchange Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Standard Contract", including adjusting the contract months and the minimum price change [3] 3.5 Demand and European Economy - Not provided in the content other than the potential impact of geopolitical factors on the market and the relationship between supply and demand reflected in the shipping prices and capacity [3] 3.6 Strategy - Unilateral: The 12 - contract oscillates, and the 2 - month contract oscillates with a slight upward bias. Arbitrage: None [9]