Nvidia(US:NVDA) Huachuang Securities·2025-12-24 05:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the computing chip industry, particularly focusing on domestic GPU manufacturers [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the development of large models follows the "Scaling Law," indicating a rigid expansion of computing power demand. This is supported by quantifiable data on AI application deployment and computing consumption, establishing a commercial link where "computing power is production material" [6]. - The GPU industry is characterized by a concentrated market structure, with major players like NVIDIA dominating the landscape. The report highlights the ongoing strategic partnerships between cloud giants and NVIDIA, reinforcing the latter's core position in AI infrastructure [6][7]. - The report analyzes the domestic GPU manufacturers' response to U.S. export restrictions, detailing their technological advancements and market strategies. Companies like Cambricon, Haiguang Information, Moore Threads, and Muxi are highlighted for their efforts to catch up with international standards [6][7]. Summary by Sections 1. GPU's Role in AI - GPUs excel in parallel computing, making them suitable for AI acceleration. The architecture of GPUs allows for simultaneous processing of vast amounts of data, significantly reducing training times for AI models [11][12]. - The GPU industry value chain is primarily concentrated in the midstream, where AI chip demand drives market growth. The report notes that the global GPU market is expected to reach 1,051.54 billion yuan by 2024, with a significant portion attributed to AI computing GPUs [24][29]. 2. Global AI Investment Trends - Major global tech companies are increasing their investments in AI, with NVIDIA maintaining a dominant position. The report cites that NVIDIA holds a 98% market share in the data center GPU segment, underscoring its competitive edge [21][35]. - The report indicates that the AI investment cycle is achieving a closed loop, with companies like Google and Microsoft ramping up their capital expenditures significantly to support AI infrastructure [46][50]. 3. Domestic GPU Development - The report discusses the urgency for domestic GPU manufacturers to achieve self-sufficiency in light of U.S. export controls. Companies are making strides in product development and market entry, with varying degrees of commercial success [6][7]. - The report highlights the financial trajectories of domestic firms, noting that Haiguang Information achieved profitability in 2021, while Cambricon is expected to reach profitability by Q4 2024 [6][7]. 4. Market Projections - The report forecasts that the global GPU market will grow to 3,611.97 billion yuan by 2029, with China's share increasing from 15.6% in 2024 to 37.8% by 2029. AI computing GPUs are projected to be the core growth driver [24][29]. - The report anticipates that the demand for data center GPUs will continue to surge, with a projected market size of 663.92 billion yuan by 2029, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 70.1% [29][31].