ACMSH(SH:688082) Shanghai Aijian Securities·2025-12-24 07:56Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, 盛美上海 (688082.SH) [5] Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from a strong order backlog, particularly in the storage wafer factory expansion, with an estimated order amount of 9.072 billion yuan, indicating a significant focus on storage-related orders [5] - The global semiconductor equipment market is projected to recover, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.3% from 2024 to 2027, while the Chinese market is expected to grow from 49.1 billion USD in 2024 to 66.2 billion USD in 2027 [5] - The company is the largest semiconductor cleaning equipment manufacturer in China, holding approximately 8% of the global market share and over 30% in the single-wafer cleaning equipment sector [5] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 38.88 billion yuan in 2023 to 98.08 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 35.3%, 44.5%, 25.1%, 20.2%, and 16.2% respectively [3][27] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 911 million yuan in 2023 to 2.323 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 36.2%, 26.7%, 46.1%, 16.8%, and 18.0% respectively [3][27] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 1.90 yuan in 2023 to 5.29 yuan in 2027 [3][27] - The company's gross margin is expected to stabilize around 49.4% in 2025 and improve to 51.0% by 2027 [3][27] Industry and Company Situation - The semiconductor cleaning equipment market is highly concentrated, with the top four companies holding a combined market share of 90% [5] - The company is expanding its product matrix beyond single-wafer cleaning equipment to include semiconductor electroplating, copper polishing, and advanced packaging wet process equipment [5] - The company has established a strong customer base, including major semiconductor manufacturers such as 海力士, 华虹集团, and 中芯国际 [22] Key Assumptions - Revenue from semiconductor cleaning equipment is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 27.6%, 22.1%, and 17.7% year-on-year growth from 2025 to 2027 [5] - The gross margin for cleaning equipment is anticipated to improve from 49.4% in 2025 to 55.4% in 2027, enhancing overall profitability [5] Catalysts for Stock Performance - The expansion of storage and logic wafer factories is expected to drive revenue growth, with a strong order backlog translating into sales [5] - Successful validation of equipment in advanced processes and packaging fields will further support the company's growth trajectory [5]