万辰集团（300972）：首次覆盖报告：量贩零食龙头加速成长，向上势能强劲

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][3]. Core Insights - The company, a leader in the snack retail industry, has established a strong position through a network of over 15,000 stores, leveraging supply chain scale effects to thrive in a rapidly changing market. Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 497.2 billion, 625.1 billion, and 715.8 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 53.8%, 25.7%, and 14.5%. Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 10.7 billion, 17.5 billion, and 24.0 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 266.0%, 63.2%, and 36.7% [3][5]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating and Valuation - The company is rated "Buy" based on its leading position in the snack retail sector and robust revenue growth forecasts. The estimated price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 32.5X, 19.9X, and 14.6X, respectively [2][3]. Industry and Company Analysis - Originally focused on edible fungi, the company entered the snack retail market in 2022 through acquisitions, rapidly increasing its revenue share from this segment to 98.9% by Q1-Q3 2025. The snack retail market in China has grown from 21.1 billion yuan in 2019 to 80.9 billion yuan in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 40%, and is projected to reach 123.9 billion yuan by 2025 [3][5]. Key Assumptions - The company plans to maintain a steady pace of store expansion, with the number of stores expected to reach 18,000, 21,000, and 22,500 by the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. Single-store revenue is projected to stabilize and grow, with estimates of 273.2, 295.1, and 315.7 thousand yuan for the same years [3][5]. Market Dynamics - The company is positioned to benefit from ongoing expansion in the East China region and penetration into untapped areas. The number of stores in East China reached 8,727 in H1 2025, contributing significantly to profits. The company’s supply chain infrastructure, including a 90,000 square meter warehouse system, provides a competitive edge [5][3]. Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 9.3 billion yuan in 2023, increasing to 71.6 billion yuan by 2027. The net profit is expected to turn positive by 2024, reaching 3.4 billion yuan by 2027 [5][24].