CATL(SZ:300750) Dong Zheng Qi Huo·2025-12-25 00:46Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content found. Core Views of the Report - The stock market may start a cross - year rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index potentially hitting 4000 points again, and it is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in various stock index futures [1][19]. - The U.S. dollar is expected to remain weak, and it is recommended to be bearish on the U.S. dollar [2][14][15]. - U.S. stocks are expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to hold a positive view on the short - term trend of U.S. stocks [16][17]. - The long - term bond market is building a bottom and is expected to strengthen in the short - to - medium term, while the short - term bond interest rate has limited downward space [24]. - Palm oil is expected to enter a consolidation phase, and it is recommended to wait for the opportunity to go long on the 05 contract; for rapeseed oil, it is recommended to focus on short - term positive spreads between near - and far - term contracts [26]. - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to adopt a range - trading approach [28][29]. - Coal prices are expected to continue to decline in the short term [30][32]. - Iron ore prices are expected to remain range - bound [33]. - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see both in single - side trading and arbitrage [34][35]. - Zinc prices are volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to reduce positions or establish hedging positions; in the medium term, it is recommended to look for opportunities to buy on dips [37]. - Lithium carbonate prices may pull back in the short term, but the long - term strategy is to buy on dips [38]. - Nickel prices are expected to return to a range - bound state [40]. - Copper prices may experience short - term corrections, and it is not recommended to chase the high. Instead, it is recommended to wait for opportunities to buy on dips for mid - term long positions [44][45]. - Tin prices are expected to adjust at a high level in the short term, and investors should be vigilant against price drops when the capital enthusiasm fades [51]. - Oil prices are weakly fluctuating. During the overseas holiday period, trading is light, and attention should be paid to the progress of Russia - Ukraine negotiations [51]. - Asphalt prices are expected to remain weak [53]. - Urea's 01 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the 05 contract should focus on post - holiday spring plowing demand and new export quota policies [55][56]. - LLDPE prices are expected to rebound, and it is recommended to wait for opportunities to establish short positions after the rebound [57][58]. - Methanol prices are expected to remain strong, and it is recommended to take a bullish approach, targeting the 2200 - 2250 range [59]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The initial jobless claims in the U.S. last week were 214,000, lower than the expected 224,000. The employment market shows no rapid deterioration, but the cooling trend remains. During the Christmas and New Year holidays, the risk of market volatility increases, and it is not recommended to chase the high in precious metals [10][11]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - U.S. Dollar Index) - A U.S. federal judge ruled that the Trump administration's new rule of a $100,000 H - 1B visa application fee is legal, which is a blow to U.S. technology companies. A U.S. official downplayed the possibility of further military action against Venezuela. The U.S. initial jobless claims decreased to 214,000. The labor market is short - term stable, market risk appetite rises, and the U.S. dollar remains weak [12][13][14]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (U.S. Stock Index Futures) - The U.S. employment market shows signs of improvement. With the GDP data exceeding expectations and the unemployment claims data decreasing, the market is optimistic about future interest rate cuts and a soft landing. The S&P 500 has reached a new high, and U.S. stocks are expected to fluctuate upward [16][17]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Shanghai Composite Index has achieved six consecutive positive days. Beijing has optimized real - estate policies, and with continuous high trading volume, a cross - year rally may start, and the index may hit 4000 points again. It is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in various stock index futures [1][18][19]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank will conduct a 400 - billion - yuan MLF operation. The long - term bond market is building a bottom. It is expected to strengthen in the short - to - medium term, with the curve mainly dominated by long - term bonds. It is recommended that allocation investors buy on interest rate increases, and trading investors buy on dips and exit quickly [24][25]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The MPOA data shows that palm oil production in Malaysia from December 1 - 20 decreased by 7.44% month - on - month, verifying the production cut expectation. The supply pressure of palm oil is expected to ease. The supply of rapeseed oil in the near - term is tight, and inventories are declining. It is recommended to wait for the opportunity to go long on palm oil's 05 contract and focus on short - term positive spreads of rapeseed oil [26]. 2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - South Africa launched an anti - dumping investigation on Chinese color - coated steel. The total new contracts signed by five major construction central enterprises in the first 11 months exceeded 6.5 trillion yuan. Steel prices are slightly rebounding, but the increase is limited. The supply - demand contradiction may accumulate in the future, and it is recommended to trade within a range [27][28][29]. 2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The total social power consumption in November increased by 6.2% year - on - year. Coal prices continue to decline, and due to warm winter weather, the demand growth rate is expected to be negative. With high port inventories, coal prices are expected to continue to fall in the short term [30][32]. 2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The National Housing and Urban - Rural Construction Work Conference was held, emphasizing key tasks for 2026. The iron ore market is seasonally weak, with expected decline in iron - making water this week. Considering the off - season demand, ore prices are expected to remain range - bound [33]. 2.5 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME 0 - 3 lead is at a discount of $42.3 per ton. LME inventories decreased, and the cash spread fluctuated. Domestic social inventories are declining. Due to environmental protection, the production of recycled lead is affected, and the demand is weak. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see [34][35]. 2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME 0 - 3 zinc is at a discount of $29.14 per ton. LME inventories increased, and the cash spread fluctuated. Domestic social inventories are increasing. Zinc prices are volatile in the short term and may rise in the medium term. It is recommended to reduce positions or hedge in the short term and buy on dips in the medium term [36][37]. 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Ningde Times' Yichun Jixiawo lithium mine is expected to resume production around the Spring Festival. Short - term prices may pull back, but long - term strategy is to buy on dips [38]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventories increased. Indonesia plans to set a lower nickel ore production quota in 2026. The market is skeptical about this plan. The cost of nickel smelting may increase. Nickel prices are expected to return to a range - bound state [39][40]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Multiple copper - related projects are in progress. Short - term copper prices are supported by macro factors but may be affected by changes in macro expectations and inventory accumulation. It is recommended not to chase the high and wait for opportunities to buy on dips for mid - term long positions [44][45]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - Turkey imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese tin - plated steel. The inventories of SHFE and LME tin increased. The supply shortage has eased in the short term, and demand is weak. Tin prices are expected to adjust at a high level in the short term [51]. 2.11 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The loading volume of the CPC pipeline in December decreased. Oil prices are weakly fluctuating. Overseas trading is light during the holiday period. Attention should be paid to the progress of Russia - Ukraine negotiations [51]. 2.12 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt increased. Asphalt prices are declining, and due to the off - season demand, prices are expected to remain weak [52][53]. 2.13 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - Urea enterprise inventories decreased. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the 05 contract should focus on post - holiday spring plowing demand and new export quota policies [55][56]. 2.14 Energy Chemicals (LLDPE) - The inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises decreased. LLDPE prices rebounded, but it is not a reversal. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to establish short positions after the rebound [57][58]. 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - Chinese methanol port inventories increased, but the actual increase may be less. With the overall rebound of the chemical industry, methanol prices are expected to remain strong. It is recommended to take a bullish approach, targeting the 2200 - 2250 range [58][59].