ONE1月上半月表价调整，02合约博弈运价见顶时间

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 12 - month contract is expected to oscillate, while the February contract is expected to oscillate with an upward trend [9] - The far - month contracts face the pressure of the Suez Canal's resumption of navigation, and their valuations are likely to be revised down [7] - The delivery settlement price of the December contract is estimated to be between 1600 - 1700 points, and attention should be paid to the actual SCFIS release [4] - The 02 contract is gradually shifting to the real - world trading logic, and the current point of contention is whether the first half of January marks the end of this round of freight rate increases [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Prices - As of December 24, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts for the container shipping index (European line) futures was 66,098 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 29,953 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1795.80, 1165.00, 1319.00, 1481.00, 1051.10, and 1605.90 respectively [8] 3.2 Spot Prices - On December 19, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1533 dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price was 1992 dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price was 2846 dollars/FEU. On December 22, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1589.20 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) was 962.10 points [8] 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - In December, the average weekly capacity for the remaining two weeks was 314,500 TEU, with capacities of 301,000 and 327,900 TEU in weeks 52 and 53 respectively. In January, the average weekly capacity was 304,600 TEU, and in February, it was 284,700 TEU. There were 3 blank sailings and 2 TBNs in January, and 8 TBNs and 3 blank sailings in February [3] - As of December 21, 2025, 250 container ships had been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 2.018 million TEU. Among them, 75 ships of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU had been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.1315 million TEU, and 12 ships of over 17,000 TEU had been delivered, with a total capacity of 253,800 TEU [8] 3.4 Supply Chain - The cease - fire mediation plan for Gaza is progressing, and the Suez Canal is likely to resume operation after the Spring Festival in 2026. The resumption of the Suez Canal means an increase in effective capacity supply and the risk of further depressing freight rates [7] 3.5 Demand and European Economy - Information from various surveys indicates that the cargo volume is gradually recovering [4] - The signing process of long - term agreements by OA and PA alliances has accelerated, with the central price of long - term agreements around 1800 dollars/FEU [6]