国机重装（601399）：首次覆盖报告：能源装备国之重器，AI时代全球化破局

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company is one of China's largest heavy equipment manufacturers, with capabilities in supplying critical equipment for energy and industrial sectors, including heavy gas turbine rotors and nuclear power components. The internationalization of the company is expected to enhance its revenue and profit margins as overseas project contracts expand [6][4] - The global demand for gas turbines is projected to increase significantly, driven by the rising electricity needs of data centers. The company is well-positioned to meet this demand due to its short construction cycles and lower costs [6] - The nuclear power sector in China is anticipated to maintain a positive approval pace for new projects, which will further drive the demand for nuclear equipment [6] - The company has secured substantial orders in the field of controlled nuclear fusion, indicating its competitive edge in this emerging market [6] Financial Data and Profitability Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2025E: 143.34 billion RMB - 2026E: 160.56 billion RMB - 2027E: 178.83 billion RMB - The expected year-on-year growth rates for revenue are 13.1% for 2025, 12.0% for 2026, and 11.4% for 2027 [6] - The forecasted net profit for the company is: - 2025E: 5.33 billion RMB - 2026E: 6.30 billion RMB - 2027E: 7.20 billion RMB - The corresponding year-on-year growth rates for net profit are 23.4% for 2025, 18.2% for 2026, and 14.3% for 2027 [6] - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable, with slight improvements anticipated as the proportion of overseas revenue increases [6] Industry and Company Situation - The gas turbine market is expected to see a significant increase in demand, with projections indicating that global electricity demand for data centers will double by 2030 [6] - The company is expanding its international presence, with overseas revenue expected to rise from 20.2% in 2022 to 30.8% in 2024 [6] - The company has made substantial progress in securing orders for critical components in controlled nuclear fusion projects, positioning it to benefit from future developments in this area [6] Key Assumptions - Continued growth in engineering contracting and gas turbine exports is expected, alongside a steady release of nuclear power project approvals [6] - Revenue from metallurgical equipment is projected to grow steadily, with significant increases in manufacturing service revenue anticipated [6]