金融期货早评-20251226

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Financial Futures - Macro: Overseas, the US GDP in Q3 grew by 4.3% year - on - year, and the employment market recovered, weakening the rate - cut expectation. Domestically, the government will continue to implement proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, with expanding domestic demand as the primary task next year. However, the domestic demand in November was weak, still needing policy support [2]. - Renminbi Exchange Rate: Although there is an expectation that the RMB will "break 7 and enter 6" in 2026, there are three potential risks. The RMB's real purchasing power is underestimated, and the narrowing of the Sino - US interest rate spread is the core trigger for its appreciation. The attractiveness of the capital market has become a key variable for the exchange - rate trend [4]. - Stock Index: In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly. Although the market sentiment has improved, there is still pressure on the index due to the approaching year - end and tightened capital [7]. - Treasury Bond: Maintain a non - pessimistic view on the medium - term bond market. Hold mid - term long positions [8]. - Container Shipping to Europe: The market is in a narrow - range consolidation, weighing between "weak reality" and "strong expectation", waiting for a clear pre - holiday driver [9]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Platinum & Palladium: In the medium - to - long term, the bull market foundation of platinum remains. In the short term, beware of adjustment risks due to the large futures - spot price difference and light spot trading [16]. - Gold & Silver: In the short term, gold is in a relatively strong state after breaking through the previous high, while silver has high price risks. In the medium - to - long term, maintain a bullish view [17]. - Copper: The copper price has exceeded the expected range. After reaching a new high, the long - short game intensifies, and the price volatility is expected to increase in Q1 [19]. - Aluminum Industry Chain: For aluminum, it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium term. For alumina, it is in an oversupply situation and is expected to run weakly. For cast aluminum alloy, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [21][22]. - Zinc: It is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term [23]. - Nickel - Stainless Steel: It is expected to have a wide - range shock [24]. - Tin: It is expected to have a wide - range shock, and it is recommended to operate within the range [25]. - Lithium Carbonate: In the short term, beware of sharp fluctuations. In the medium - to - long term, there are opportunities to go long on dips [26]. - Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon: Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand double - weak pattern, with value for long - term bottom - fishing. Polysilicon has deviated from the fundamentals, and new registered warehouse receipts should be monitored [27][28]. - Lead: It is expected to fluctuate between 16700 - 17500 in the short term [29]. Black Metals - Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil: The steel price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the rebar 2605 contract between 2900 - 3300 and the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract between 3000 - 3400 [30][31]. - Iron Ore: It is expected to run within a range, with limited upside space after valuation repair [33]. - Coking Coal & Coke: As the terminal winter - storage replenishment approaches, the coking - coal inventory structure is expected to improve. For coke, if steel mills resume production quickly, the supply - demand structure is expected to improve [35][36]. - Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese: They are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upside space is limited, and they may follow the steel - price trend [37][38]. Energy and Chemicals - Pulp - Offset Paper: The current market is neutral. The "breaking 7" of the RMB brings macro - level benefits, and the price has rebounded from a low level. For offset - paper futures, the market sentiment has improved, and it is recommended to wait and see or try short - term long positions [39][40][41]. - Crude Oil: The escalating geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela will drive up the short - term oil price. Follow - up attention should be paid to the development of the situation [43]. - LPG: The fundamentals are stable. The near - term price has support, while the expected price is under pressure [44][45]. - PTA - PX: PX is in a good supply - demand pattern and is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall. PTA's processing - fee expectation center moves up, but the space is limited [47][48][49]. - MEG - Bottle Chip: The demand for ethylene glycol is weakening, and the supply has initially shown support signals. The over - supply expectation will continue to suppress the valuation [50][51]. - Methanol: The fundamentals are mixed, with a near - term weak and long - term strong expectation. Hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread [53]. - Pure Benzene - Styrene: Pure benzene is in an over - supply situation, with an internal - weak and external - strong pattern. Styrene has changed from strong reality to weak expectation, and the follow - up should focus on relevant news [56]. - Soda Ash & Caustic Soda: Soda ash is in an over - supply situation, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Glass needs to digest high inventory, and caustic soda is expected to fluctuate weakly [57][58][62]. - Log: It has low volatility, with limited upside and downside space. Consider interval operations [63][64]. - Propylene: It maintains a loose supply situation and is expected to fluctuate at a low level [65][66]. Agricultural Products - Hogs: In the long - term, it can be bullish, but in the short - to - medium term, focus on the fundamentals. The near - term出栏 pressure remains, while the far - term is affected by expectations and shows a strong trend [67]. - Oilseeds: The external - market soybeans are waiting for the January USDA report, and the internal - market soybean meal should focus on the supply increase from state reserves. Wait for a definite opportunity [68][69]. - Oils and Fats: In the short term, they will continue to fluctuate. Palm oil is relatively strong in the sector, and attention should be paid to the production and biodiesel market information [70]. - Cotton: In the short term, the hedging pressure on cotton prices is gradually digested. In the long - term, the supply - demand may be tight, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday downstream orders [71][72]. - Sugar: In the short term, it is difficult for the sugar price to rise further after the basis repair [73][74]. - Eggs: The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is still excessive, and the price is under pressure. In the short term, some farmers are culling hens. It is recommended to take a light - position long position if betting on a rebound [74][75]. - Apples: The near - term is strong, and the far - term is weak. Wait for the price to pull back to go long [76][77]. - Jujubes: In the short term, the jujube price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. In the long - term, the supply - demand is loose, and the price will be under pressure [78][79]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - Market News: The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded to issues such as the relaxation of rare - earth magnet exports to the US, TikTok's joint - venture establishment in the US, and opposed the US's additional 301 tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products. Japan plans to launch a record - high budget of 122 trillion yen in the new fiscal year [1]. - Renminbi Exchange Rate: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0066 on the previous trading day, and the mid - price rose. Japan raised its economic forecast for the 2025 fiscal year and is approaching the 2% inflation target [3]. - Stock Index: The stock index closed up on the previous trading day, and the market sentiment improved. However, there is pressure on the index due to the approaching year - end [5][7]. - Treasury Bond: The treasury bond closed down on Thursday, and the trading volume of medium - and long - term varieties continued to shrink. The market adheres to a non - pessimistic view on the medium - term [7][8]. - Container Shipping to Europe: The futures market fluctuates between "weak reality" and "strong expectation", with spot - price increase games and geopolitical disturbances [9][12]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Platinum & Palladium: The overseas market was closed for Christmas, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange continued to limit positions. The long - term prospects of platinum are good, but beware of short - term adjustment risks [14][16]. - Gold & Silver: The overseas market was closed for Christmas, while the domestic night - session was active. Silver rose sharply. Pay attention to the appointment of the new Fed chairman and economic data [17]. - Copper: The CSPT did not set a spot - purchase guidance price for Q1 2026. The copper price has reached a new high, and the price volatility is expected to increase in Q1 [18][19]. - Aluminum Industry Chain: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium term, alumina is in an over - supply situation, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to follow the aluminum - price trend [20][21][22]. - Zinc: The zinc price has strong support below. The supply is expected to be loose in the long - term, but the short - term raw - material supply is tight. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level [22][23]. - Nickel - Stainless Steel: They showed a slight correction and are expected to fluctuate widely. The nickel - ore market is expected to be stable and strong, and the stainless - steel market is relatively stable [23][24]. - Tin: It fluctuated widely at a high level. The supply from Myanmar and Indonesia is expected to recover in December, and the demand has no obvious increase in the short term [25][29]. - Lithium Carbonate: The futures price decreased, and the trading volume and open interest declined. The industry is in a state of production increase and inventory reduction [25][26]. - Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon: Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand double - weak pattern, and polysilicon has deviated from the fundamentals. Pay attention to new registered warehouse receipts [27][28]. - Lead: The lead price rebounded slightly. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is stable. It is expected to fluctuate between 16700 - 17500 [28][29]. Black Metals - Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil: The steel price rebounded due to the rise of coking coal and iron ore prices and then fluctuated. The supply may increase, and the demand is in the off - season [30][31]. - Iron Ore: The port inventory is accumulating, but the steel - mill inventory is low. The iron - water production is expected to bottom out, and the price is expected to run within a range [32][33]. - Coking Coal & Coke: The coking - coal inventory structure is deteriorating, and the coke's third - round price cut has been fully implemented. As the terminal winter - storage replenishment approaches, the coking - coal inventory structure is expected to improve [34][35][36]. - Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese: They rebounded from the bottom last week due to policy and cost factors. The supply may decrease, and the demand is expected to decline [37][38]. Energy and Chemicals - Pulp - Offset Paper: The pulp price rebounded from a low level, and the offset - paper market sentiment improved. The port pulp inventory is decreasing, and some pulp mills have reduced prices [39][40][41]. - Crude Oil: The overseas market was closed for Christmas. The escalating geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela will drive up the short - term oil price [42][43]. - LPG: The LPG price fluctuated, and the fundamentals were stable. The near - term price has support, while the expected price is under pressure [44][45]. - PTA - PX: PX is in a good supply - demand pattern, and PTA's production has decreased significantly. The PTA processing - fee expectation center moves up, but the space is limited [47][48][49]. - MEG - Bottle Chip: The demand for ethylene glycol is weakening, and the supply has initially shown support signals. The over - supply expectation will continue to suppress the valuation [50][51]. - Methanol: The methanol price is mixed, with a near - term weak and long - term strong expectation. Hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread [52][53]. - Pure Benzene - Styrene: Pure benzene is in an over - supply situation, and styrene has changed from strong reality to weak expectation. Follow - up attention should be paid to relevant news [54][56]. - Soda Ash & Caustic Soda: Soda ash is in an over - supply situation, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Glass needs to digest high inventory, and caustic soda is expected to fluctuate weakly [57][58][62]. - Log: It has low volatility, with limited upside and downside space. Consider interval operations [63][64]. - Propylene: It maintains a loose supply situation and is expected to fluctuate at a low level [65][66]. Agricultural Products - Hogs: The futures price decreased slightly, and the spot price showed regional differences. The long - term can be bullish, but focus on the short - to - medium - term fundamentals [67]. - Oilseeds: The external - market was closed for Christmas. The soybean supply is expected to be stable, and the rapeseed supply is low. Wait for a definite opportunity [68][69]. - Oils and Fats: The external - market was closed for Christmas. Palm oil production is expected to decline, and the demand is expected to increase. The overall market will continue to fluctuate [70]. - Cotton: The external - market was closed for Christmas, and the domestic cotton price rose. The new - season cotton - planting area in Xinjiang is expected to decrease, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday downstream orders [71][72]. - Sugar: The external - market was closed for Christmas, and the domestic sugar price fell. In the short term, it is difficult for the sugar price to rise further after the basis repair [73][74]. - Eggs: The futures price was stable, and the spot price was mainly stable. The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is excessive, and some farmers are culling hens [74][75]. - Apples: The futures price fluctuated horizontally, and the spot price was stable. The consumption has slowed down, and wait for the price to pull back to go long [76][77]. - Jujubes: The new - jujube harvest is basically completed. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and the long - term supply - demand is loose [78][79].