Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Mijue Group (2097.HK), marking its first coverage [4]. Core Insights - Mijue Group is positioned as the world's largest ready-to-drink beverage company, leveraging an end-to-end supply chain system and a network of 53,000 stores to establish a leading position in the ready-to-drink tea market. Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at RMB 335.5 billion, RMB 403.0 billion, and RMB 443.9 billion, respectively, with corresponding net profits of RMB 60.0 billion, RMB 74.0 billion, and RMB 84.1 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 35.1%, 20.1%, and 10.1% [4][6]. Company and Industry Analysis - The ready-to-drink beverage industry in China is experiencing rapid growth, with the ready-to-drink tea market size reaching approximately RMB 258.5 billion in 2023. The company focuses on the research, production, and sales of ready-to-drink tea and freshly brewed coffee, operating under the brands Mijue Ice City and Lucky Coffee, which target price points of RMB 6-8 and RMB 5-10, respectively. The company operates on a franchise model, generating revenue primarily from selling equipment and providing franchise services [4][6]. - Mijue Group's supply chain advantages include a comprehensive procurement network across 38 countries, five production bases ensuring 100% self-sourcing of core ingredients, and a logistics system that allows for rapid delivery to 90% of domestic county-level administrative regions within 12 hours. This infrastructure supports consistent product quality and cost efficiency, reinforcing the company's market leadership with a market share of approximately 49.6% in the ready-to-drink tea sector [4][5][6]. Key Assumptions - The company anticipates steady expansion in store numbers, particularly in lower-tier markets, with projected revenue from product and equipment sales of RMB 326.8 billion, RMB 392.2 billion, and RMB 431.4 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The gross margin is expected to improve gradually, reaching 31.5% by 2027 [4][6]. - Revenue from franchise fees and related services is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of RMB 8.7 billion, RMB 10.9 billion, and RMB 12.5 billion for the same years, reflecting a robust growth trajectory supported by an expanding store network [4][6]. Financial Data and Profitability Forecast - The company forecasts total revenue of RMB 20.3 billion in 2023, increasing to RMB 44.4 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 49.6% from 2023 to 2024 and 10.1% from 2026 to 2027. Net profit is expected to rise from RMB 3.1 billion in 2023 to RMB 8.4 billion in 2027, with corresponding net profit growth rates of 57.1% and 13.7% [6][21]. - The report highlights a projected gross margin improvement from 29.5% in 2023 to 33.0% in 2027, alongside a net margin increase from 15.7% to 19.0% over the same period [6][21].
蜜雪集团（02097）：首次覆盖报告：现制茶饮龙头，供应链优势铸就核心竞争力