CTG DUTY-FREE(SH:601888) Soochow Securities·2025-12-27 11:07Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail industry [1] Core Insights - The implementation of the new duty-free policy in Hainan since November 1 has led to a significant increase in duty-free sales, with a year-on-year growth rate of 27.1% in November [4][9] - Following the closure of the island on December 18, the duty-free market in Sanya has seen a surge, with sales exceeding 1 billion yuan for five consecutive days, and a total sales amount of 5.35 billion yuan from December 18 to 22, marking a 50.3% year-on-year increase [4][9] - The average transaction value for duty-free sales in November 2025 reached 7,227 yuan, a 41% increase compared to the same period last year [4][10] - The report suggests monitoring companies that benefit from the duty-free policy, including China Duty Free Group, Hainan Airlines Group, and Wangfujing [4][10] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The retail industry has shown a positive trend with the duty-free sales in Hainan experiencing a notable increase post-policy implementation [4][9] - The average price of high-value items like gold and smartphones has decreased significantly compared to mainland prices, contributing to higher average transaction values [4][10] Market Performance - The retail index increased by 10.00% year-to-date, while the broader market indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 18.26% [11][12] Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for various companies in the retail sector, highlighting their market capitalization and projected earnings [18][19]