铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告-20251228

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - Aluminum is following the upward trend of copper, but its price elasticity is limited by weak spot fundamentals. The price may experience a "dip" due to the decline in photovoltaic enterprise production, but the downside is limited if the risk appetite of traditional non - ferrous sectors remains strong in Q1 [3]. - Alumina once hit the daily limit on Friday due to the policy guidance. However, the market turnaround depends on significant supply - side clearance and re - balance of supply and demand. The mid - term strategy is to find selling points during price rebounds [4]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Price and Market Performance - Aluminum Price: Aluminum is following the upward trend of traditional non - ferrous and precious metals, but the weak spot fundamentals limit its price elasticity. The short - term demand is weak, with significant inventory accumulation and expanding spot discounts [3]. - Alumina Price: Alumina once hit the daily limit on Friday due to policy guidance. The price is affected by supply - demand imbalance, short - position trading factors, and cost considerations. The price may fluctuate more at lower levels, and the mid - term view is to sell on rebounds [4]. - Futures Data: This week, the trading volume of most aluminum - related futures increased, and the positions showed differentiation. The price of most futures rose, and the inventory and price differences also changed [5]. 3.2 Trading - end Analysis - Price Differences - Spot - Futures Price Differences: This week, the spot premiums of both A00 aluminum and alumina weakened. For example, the average SMM A00 aluminum spot premium decreased from - 50 yuan/ton to - 190 yuan/ton, and the Shandong alumina premium to the current month decreased from 156 yuan/ton to - 147 yuan/ton [10]. - Monthly Price Differences: The near - month price difference of Shanghai aluminum weakened [11]. - Volume and Open Interest - The open interest of the Shanghai aluminum main contract decreased slightly, while the trading volume increased slightly. - The open interest and trading volume of the alumina main contract increased significantly, and the open interest remained at a historical high [14]. - Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio: The open interest - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai aluminum decreased, while that of alumina increased slightly and remained at a historically low level [19]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - Bauxite: As of December 26, the port inventory of imported bauxite decreased, and the inventory days remained stable. In November, the bauxite inventory of alumina enterprises decreased. The Guinea port shipment volume decreased, while the Australian port shipment volume increased. The Guinea sea - floating inventory increased, and the Australian sea - floating inventory decreased [25][30][31]. - Alumina: The total national inventory and the all - caliber inventory of alumina continued to accumulate. The factory inventory, electrolytic aluminum plant inventory, and platform/in - transit inventory increased, while the port inventory decreased [45][52]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: As of December 25, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 51,000 tons to 612,000 tons this week [53]. - Processed Products - Aluminum Rod: This week, the spot inventory and factory inventory of aluminum rods showed differentiation [59]. - Aluminum Profiles and Plate - Foil: In November, the inventory ratios of both raw materials and finished products of aluminum profiles and plate - foil increased slightly [62]. 3.4 Production Analysis - Bauxite: In November, the domestic bauxite supply was mainly stable, with a slight decline in SMM - caliber domestic production. The supply of imported bauxite was an important factor driving the growth of the total supply. By province, the production in some regions decreased, while in others it increased [67][68]. - Alumina: The capacity utilization rate remained stable. As of December 26, the total operating capacity decreased by 300,000 tons. This week, the domestic metallurgical - grade alumina production was 1.838 million tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from last week. The supply - side surplus situation has not changed [72]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: As of November, the operating capacity remained at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate was high due to profit restoration. As of December 11, the weekly production was 856,700 tons, an increase of 400 tons from last week. The aluminum - water ratio decreased seasonally [75]. - Downstream Processing - Output: This week, the output of recycled aluminum rods, aluminum rods, and aluminum plate - foil decreased [78]. - 开工率: The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream leading enterprises decreased by 0.7%. By sector, the operating rates of aluminum plate - strip, aluminum foil, aluminum profiles, and aluminum cables decreased, while the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy increased [79][82][84]. 3.5 Profit Analysis - Alumina: In November, the alumina profit continued to decline slightly, and the smelting profit was under pressure. By province, the profits in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan remained stable, while the profit in Guangxi was better [86]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The profit remained at a high level, but uncertain factors such as the complex global macro - economic situation and overseas geopolitical conflicts interfered with market expectations [99]. - Downstream Processing: The processing fee of aluminum rods decreased by 20 yuan/ton this week, and the downstream processing profit remained at a low level [100]. 3.6 Consumption Analysis - Import and Export - Import: The import losses of alumina and Shanghai aluminum have widened [109]. - Export: In November 2025, the total export volume of aluminum products increased slightly, but the export demand is affected by trade policy adjustments [111]. - Consumption Volume: The commercial housing transaction area is at a low level, while the automobile production increased month - on - month [114].