Muyuan Foods (SZ:002714) Guoxin Securities·2025-12-28 12:21Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural products sector [1][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a potential upward trend in the beef and dairy sectors, driven by a reversal in the agricultural cycle, with domestic and international beef and dairy markets expected to resonate positively [3]. - The pig farming sector is anticipated to benefit from capacity control measures, leading to improved cash flow for leading enterprises, which may transform them into dividend stocks amidst industry-wide capacity reduction [3]. - Poultry supply fluctuations are expected to be limited, with demand recovery likely to enhance the performance of leading companies, which can achieve higher cash flow returns due to their excess yield advantages [3]. - The feed sector is projected to deepen industrialization, with leading companies leveraging technological and service advantages to widen their competitive edge [3]. - The pet industry is identified as a growing sector benefiting from demographic trends [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Overview and Data Summary - The report provides a weekly summary of agricultural product fundamentals, indicating a slight decrease in pig prices and a stable outlook for beef prices [12][13]. 2. Fundamental Tracking 2.1 Swine - The average price of live pigs on December 26 was 11.52 CNY/kg, down 0.43% week-on-week and down 26.48% year-on-year [13]. - The price of 7kg piglets was approximately 217.38 CNY/head, down 0.54% week-on-week and down 40.87% year-on-year [13]. 2.2 White Chicken - The price of chicken seedlings was 3.34 CNY/bird, down 0.89% week-on-week, while the price of broilers was 7.78 CNY/kg, up 6.87% week-on-week [13][14]. 2.3 Yellow Chicken - Prices for various types of yellow chicken remained stable, with slight fluctuations observed [14]. 2.4 Eggs - The main production area price for eggs was 2.92 CNY/jin, down 4.89% week-on-week and down 17.75% year-on-year, indicating significant supply pressure [14]. 2.5 Beef - The price of fattened bulls was 25.20 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week, and the beef market price was 60.91 CNY/kg, down 0.21% week-on-week but up 20.02% year-on-year [2][14]. 2.6 Raw Milk - The average price of raw milk was 3.03 CNY/kg, up 0.33% week-on-week, with expectations for accelerated dairy cow liquidation in Q4 [2][14]. 2.7 Soybean Meal - The domestic soybean price was 4015 CNY/ton, stable week-on-week, while soybean meal was priced at 3134 CNY/ton, up 0.51% week-on-week [2][14]. 2.8 Corn - The domestic corn price was 2300 CNY/ton, down 0.04% week-on-week but up 10.42% year-on-year, indicating a tightening supply-demand balance [2][14]. 2.9 Rubber - Short-term prices are expected to stabilize, with a positive outlook for the medium term [2]. 2.10 Sugar - Short-term imports are increasing, with attention on import rhythms and fluctuations in crude oil prices [2]. 2.11 Palm Oil - Short-term supply is weak while demand remains strong, with medium-term policy support expected [2]. 2.12 Cotton - Inventory pressure is neutral, with demand still needing recovery [2]. 2.13 Red Dates - The new season is expected to maintain high production, with attention on seasonal consumption support [2]. 3. Market Trends - The report includes a weekly performance summary of agricultural stocks, indicating fluctuations in various sectors [12].