南华期货丙烯产业周报：关注装置变动-20251228

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core contradictions affecting the propylene trend include macro - sentiment and policy disturbances, relatively stable spot supply - demand, significant suppression from the main downstream PP, and PDH profit pressure. The propylene 03 contract may oscillate in the range of 5500 - 6000 yuan/ton in the short term. [2][3] - In the near - term, the trading logic is influenced by the overall loose fundamentals and the weak PP trend, with high enterprise inventories and continuous pressure from PP supply - demand. In the long - term, there are expectations of supply - side production capacity expansion, PP terminal demand falling short of supply growth leading to inventory accumulation, and cost - side pressure due to increased supply. [6][10] - The market is in an oscillating and weakening state, and may experience small rebounds due to some macro - factors, but is expected to maintain a weakening oscillation in the short term. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and PDH unit maintenance. [15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Macro - sentiment and Policy Disturbances: The recent futures market has been affected by "anti - involution" news, driving some chemical products to rebound at low levels, which should be regarded as a rebound before the improvement of fundamentals. [2] - Spot Supply - Demand: The overall supply - demand difference has changed little this week. On the supply side, Guangzhou Petrochemical increased its load, Jinghai Chemical restarted, and Qinghai Salt Lake shut down, with little change in overall production and start - up rates. On the demand side, it increased slightly this week. PP start - up decreased slightly, while the start - up of other downstream products such as propylene oxide decreased slightly and n - butanol increased slightly. In the Shandong market, supply increased and demand decreased, and prices fell under pressure. [2] - Main Downstream PP Suppression: PP supply is sufficient, and the price difference with propylene is at a low level. The spot - end price difference is 265 yuan/ton this week, and the main futures - contract price difference is also at a low level. Although the price difference is at a low level, there has been no large - scale PP maintenance, and the price remains weak overall. [2] - PDH Profit Pressure: The price of external propane remains strong. The current PDH cost is about 6200 - 6500 yuan/ton, and the industry is in a continuous loss state. Attention should be paid to the possible negative feedback caused by profit contraction. Although there are rumors of some PDH unit maintenance, the actual implementation needs to be tracked. [3] 3.1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - Market Positioning: Oscillating and weakening, with the PL03 price range at 5500 - 6000 yuan/ton. The overall market remains oscillating and weakening, may rebound slightly due to some macro - factors, but is expected to maintain a weakening oscillation in the short term. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and PDH unit maintenance. [15] - Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations - Basis Strategy: Oscillating and narrowing. The spot price weakened slightly this week, and the futures oscillated upwards, causing the basis to narrow. Attention should be paid to unit maintenance. [16] - Hedging Arbitrage Strategy: Expand the PP - PL spread when it is low and wait; expand the PL/PG ratio and wait. The spot - end price difference between PP pellets and propylene is about 265 yuan/ton, and the main futures - contract price difference is 499 yuan/ton. One can enter the market when the price difference is low and pay attention to PP unit maintenance. There are rumors of PDH unit maintenance, so one can expand the PDH profit when the price is low and consider expanding the PP/PL and PG ratio in the domestic market. [16] 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Propylene Price Range Forecast: The price range is predicted to be 5500 - 6000 yuan/ton, with the current 20 - day rolling volatility at 0.1254 and the historical percentage of the current volatility in the past 3 years at 0.5277. [17] - Propylene Hedging Strategy Table - To prevent inventory depreciation losses, enterprises can short - allocate propylene futures at high prices according to their inventory levels to lock in profits. For PL2603, the hedging ratio is 50%, and the recommended entry range is 6100 - 6200 yuan/ton. [19] - Sell call options to collect premiums and reduce costs. If the spot price rises, the selling price can be locked. For PL2603C6000, the hedging ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is 60 - 80. [19] - To prevent the increase in procurement costs due to rising propylene prices, enterprises can buy propylene futures at low prices and lock in procurement costs through futures trading. For PL2603, the hedging ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is 5500 - 5600 yuan/ton. [19] - Sell put options to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs. If the propylene price falls, the spot purchase price can be locked. For PL2603P5500, the hedging ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is 40 - 60. [19] 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information No information provided in the content. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - On December 31, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting. - On December 31, China will release the December PMI. [24] 3.3 Futures Market Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Domestic Market: The PL03 contract oscillated this week. The net positions of the main profitable seats increased, there were no obvious changes in the top 5 long and short positions in the dragon - tiger list, the net long positions of the profitable seats decreased slightly, the net long positions of foreign capital decreased slightly, and the net long positions of retail investors increased slightly. Technically, it is still a rebound in a downward trend on the daily chart and may turn into an oscillation in the range of 5600 - 6000 yuan/ton. [22] - Basis and Calendar Spread Structure: The propylene 03 basis closed at - 58 yuan/ton this week, compared with - 278 yuan/ton last week. The spot price fell this week, and the futures oscillated upwards. The propylene 02 - 03 calendar spread closed at - 24 yuan/ton, compared with - 44 yuan/ton last week. [26] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Up - and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - Upstream Profit: The gross profit of major refineries this week was 664 yuan/ton (+50), and the gross profit of Shandong local refineries was 428 yuan/ton (-43). The start - up rate at the cracking end changed little this week. The PDH profit with FEI as the cost was - 346 yuan/ton (-73), and the PDH profit with CP as the cost was - 529 yuan/ton (-44). PDH remained in a loss state. Propane cracking profit declined significantly, and the cracking economy of LPG was inferior to that of naphtha. [28][29][30] - Mid - stream Profit: No specific profit data was provided, only some seasonal charts were presented. [31] - Downstream Profit: The price difference between PP拉丝 and propylene was 265 yuan/ton (+100), and the price difference between PP powder and propylene was 305 yuan/ton (+200). As the propylene price weakened, the price difference repaired slightly at the low level. The profit of the propylene oxide chlorohydrin method was 533 yuan/ton (+346.5), and the profit was still good. The profit of acrylonitrile was - 1333 yuan/ton (+51), and the overall loss was still large. The profit of acrylic acid was - 178 yuan/ton (-22), and the profit weakened. Currently, there is a divergence between profit and start - up rate, and attention should be paid to the subsequent start - up situation. The profit of n - butanol was 72 yuan/ton (+99), and the overall profit of n - butanol was around the break - even point. The profit of octanol was +580 yuan/ton (+180). As the supply decreased, the profit repaired at the low level. However, the 450,000 - ton unit of Bohua Yongli is expected to start in January, and Jiangsu Huachang is increasing its load. The profit of phenol - acetone was - 938 yuan/ton (-7), and the profit was weak. Currently, PO and butyl - octanol have a little profit, while others are basically in a loss state. [33] 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking The price difference between Chinese and South Korean propylene has been stable recently, with CFR China at 740 US dollars (0 change). [47] 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction in the Shandong Market This week, in the Shandong market, supply increased and demand decreased slightly, and the spot price declined. The increase in supply mainly came from the increased load of PDH and the restart of the Jinghai unit. The decrease in demand came from the maintenance of the Jinneng and Yulong units in the PP sector and the maintenance of some units in the PO and acrylonitrile sectors. [49] 3.5.2 Market Supply - side and Deduction This week, there were both start - ups and shutdowns. The propylene output was 1.2271 million tons (+0.03), and the start - up rate was 74.11% (-0.1%), still at a relatively high level. The 210,000 - ton steam cracking unit of Jinghai Chemical was under maintenance, and the 160,000 - ton MTO unit of Qinghai Salt Lake had a short - term shutdown this week. The estimated decline in Shandong's market output in January mainly includes the expected maintenance of Jinneng. [52][53] 3.5.3 Demand - side and Deduction - PP: The price difference between PP pellets and powder and propylene rebounded slightly this week, and the start - up rate of the pellet sector remained stable. The price difference between powder and propylene also rebounded slightly this week but was still at a low level, and maintenance increased. [58][62] - Propylene Oxide: This week, Zhonghai Jingxi, Guoen, and Bohua shut down, and Huatai reduced its load. The overall inventory continued to decline, returning to the level of the same period in 2022. [63] - Acrylonitrile: This week, Shandong Haijiang started maintenance, with an expected duration of 20 days. [65] - Butyl - Octanol: Jilin Petrochemical and Qilu Petrochemical's units shut down, Zhanjiang BASF and Zhejiang Satellite's units were in normal production, Shandong Luxi's unit maintained a low - load operation, and Jiangsu Shuguang had a 3 - day short - term shutdown. The 450,000 - ton unit of Bohua Yongli is expected to start in January; the 180,000 - ton new unit of Jiangsu Huachang is increasing its load; Shandong Jianlan restarted. [69] - Acrylic Acid: Qilu Petrochemical slightly reduced its load this week, and the capacity utilization rate was at a phased high. There is a divergence between start - up and profit. [72] - Phenol - Acetone: Moyiwei Chemical reduced its load, and Shandong Fuyu increased its load. [74] - Shandong Regional Demand: The regional demand in Shandong increased this week, and the increase mainly came from the restart and increased load of PP, PO, acrylonitrile, and octanol. [76]