天然橡胶周度报告-20251228

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The natural rubber market is expected to follow the overall commodity market sentiment, with prices likely to experience a rapid upward movement followed by high - level consolidation in the short term. As domestic production areas enter the off - season, overseas high - yield periods continue, and port inventories may continue to accumulate, providing short - term support to the market. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation level and downstream holiday arrangements [107]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - In the first 11 months of 2025, Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber reached 4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%, and exports to China totaled 2.518 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 24%. In November 2025, the global natural rubber production was expected to decrease by 2.6% to 1.474 million tons, and consumption was expected to decrease by 1.4% to 1.248 million tons. In November 2025, EU passenger car sales increased by 2.1% year - on - year to 887,491 units [5][6][7]. Price Market Trends - This week, both domestic and foreign rubber prices increased significantly, with Singapore TSR20 rubber having the largest increase. On December 26, 2025, the closing prices of RU2605, NR2605, Singapore TSR20:2605, and Tokyo RSS3:2605 were 15,780 yuan/ton, 12,820 yuan/ton, 180.50 cents/kg, and 339.50 yen/kg respectively, with month - on - month increases of 3.88%, 3.47%, 3.91%, and 2.35% [10][12]. Basis and Calendar Spread - On December 26, 2025, the basis of whole milk - RU05 was - 480 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 41.18% and a year - on - year increase of 40.37%. The 05 - 09 calendar spread was 30 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 50.00% and a year - on - year increase of 117.65% [13]. Other Spreads - The spreads of RU - NR, RU - BR, and RU - JPX RSS3 increased, while the spread of NR - SGX TSR20 decreased. The spreads of non - standard basis and light - dark color also changed. The price of substitute synthetic rubber increased due to factors such as cost support and macro expectations [19][24][27]. Fundamental Data Supply - Weather: The rainy season in southern Thailand is approaching its end, and the rainfall is decreasing; the rainy season in northeastern Thailand has passed, and the temperature is relatively low. The rainy seasons in Hainan and Yunnan in China have basically ended [43][45]. - Raw Material Prices: As the Hainan production area gradually stops tapping, the enthusiasm of factories to purchase rubber has significantly cooled. The high - yield period of overseas rubber tapping exerts pressure on supply, and Thai raw material prices are weak [47]. - Raw Material Spreads: The water - cup spread in Thailand has narrowed. The spread between the price of Hainan rubber latex entering the concentrated latex factory and that entering the whole - milk factory has also narrowed, and Yunnan has basically stopped tapping [51]. - Upstream Processing Profits: The rubber processing profits in Thailand have generally recovered [54]. - Delivery Profits: The delivery profit in Hainan has recovered, and Yunnan has basically stopped tapping, so data updates have been suspended [57]. - Exports: In November, Thailand's natural rubber exports decreased month - on - month, with a slight increase in latex exports. In October, Indonesia's natural rubber exports decreased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month. In October, Vietnam's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, and exports to China rebounded seasonally. In November, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports decreased month - on - month, and exports to China decreased significantly [64][70][76]. - Imports: In November, China imported 643,600 tons of natural rubber (including mixed rubber and compound rubber), a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.76% [82]. Demand - Tire Capacity Utilization and Inventory: During the period, the capacity utilization rates of tire sample enterprises fluctuated. The inventory of tires continued to accumulate [85]. - Tire Exports and Heavy - Truck Sales: In November, heavy - truck sales increased month - on - month, and the growth rate accelerated. Passenger car sales continued to grow, but the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates continued to decline. Tire exports recovered slightly month - on - month [88]. - Road Transport Turnover: In November, the freight turnover on roads rebounded month - on - month, while the passenger turnover decreased month - on - month [92]. Inventory - Spot Inventory: China's natural rubber inventory continued to accumulate seasonally, with a larger increase in dark - colored rubber inventory than in light - colored rubber inventory [98]. - Futures Inventory: As of December 26, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 93,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.77% [104]. This Week's View Summary - Supply: The Hainan production area is gradually stopping tapping, and overseas high - yield periods continue to put pressure on supply. In November 2025, China's natural rubber imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [107]. - Demand: The capacity utilization rates of tire sample enterprises fluctuated, with semi - steel tires having a slight increase and all - steel tires being dragged down by maintenance [107]. - View: The natural rubber market is expected to experience high - level consolidation after a rapid upward movement. Pay attention to inventory accumulation and downstream holiday arrangements [107]. - Valuation: The spread between the main contracts of RU and NR narrowed, while the spread between mixed standard rubber and the main contract of RU widened [107]. - Strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see or short - on - rallies approach for RU; gradually increase long - cash - short - futures positions and pay attention to capital inflows in the market; observe cross - variety spreads [107].