Nvidia(US:NVDA) Guohai Securities·2025-12-29 07:06Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The conditional opening of H200 to China is seen as a short-term supplement to AI computing power supply, while reinforcing the necessity for long-term self-sufficiency in technology [11] - The release of H200 chips is primarily aimed at inventory clearance and regaining market share lost due to previous restrictions [5] - Domestic tech giants are seizing the opportunity to procure H200 chips, with significant orders planned by companies like Alibaba and ByteDance [6] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - The computer industry has shown a performance of -1.4% over 1 month, -6.5% over 3 months, and 11.6% over 12 months, compared to the CSI 300 index which has performed at 3.1%, 2.4%, and 16.8% respectively [3] Market Reactions - Following the conditional opening of H200 exports, major Chinese tech firms are rapidly increasing their procurement of high-end computing power, with Alibaba planning to purchase 40,000 to 50,000 H200 chips [6] - Other companies like Tencent are exploring alternative high-performance computing options, indicating a diverse strategy among domestic firms [6] Procurement Analysis - The initial shipment of 40,000 to 80,000 H200 chips is estimated to generate potential sales of several hundred billion RMB, highlighting the significant market demand for these chips [7][8] - The attractiveness of H200 compared to less powerful alternatives is expected to drive continued demand in the Chinese market [8] Long-term Implications - The conditional release of H200 may delay the progress of domestic chip alternatives, as companies may postpone their plans for self-sufficiency in favor of immediate access to high-performance chips [9] - However, there is a growing consensus on the need for self-sufficiency, with discussions around a "matching procurement" mechanism to ensure that large imports of H200 are accompanied by purchases of domestic chips [9][10] Industry Outlook - The demand for AI computing power is expected to remain high, driven by substantial investments in AI and the potential of the AI inference market [11] - The industry is likely to benefit from ongoing developments in domestic chip technology, with companies like Baidu and Huawei making strides in self-developed chips [10]