Holly Futures(SZ:001236) Hong Ye Qi Huo·2025-12-29 08:09Market View Coking Coal - Supply: The operating rate of 523 sample mines was 84.21% (-2.41%), and the daily average output of clean coal was 73.76 tons (-1.79). The capacity utilization rate of 314 coal washing plants was 36.32% (-1.36%), and the daily output of clean coal was 26.59 tons (-0.7). At the end of the year, the import of Mongolian coal increased significantly, and the overall supply pressure remained [3]. - Demand: The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel mills was 226.58 tons (+0.03), the blast furnace operating rate was 78.32% (-0.15%), the available days of coking coal in steel mills were 12.96 days (-0.06), and the available days of coking coal in 230 independent coking plants were 13.49 days (+0.06). Downstream demand was mainly for rigid procurement [3]. - Inventory: The clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 282.9 tons (+10.13), the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 1039.72 tons (+3.43), the steel mill inventory was 806.72 tons (+1.73), the clean coal inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants was 329 tons (+1.72), and the inventory of major ports was 299.5 tons (+13.33). Procurement sentiment weakened [3]. - Summary: Last week, the supply of the coking coal market declined slightly and remained at a low level, and the procurement sentiment in the off - season of demand was weak. The import pressure of Mongolian coal will decrease in the new year, and the supply pressure will be alleviated. With the increasing expectation of winter storage replenishment, the market will remain volatile [3]. Coke - Supply: The average profit per ton of coke in coking plants was - 18 yuan/ton (-34), the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking plants was 71.66% (-0.39%), the daily output of all - sample independent coking plants was 62.67 tons (-0.33), and the daily output of coke from 247 steel mills was 46.9 tons (+0.31). The overall supply changed little [4]. - Demand: The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel mills was 226.58 tons (+0.03), the blast furnace operating rate was 78.32% (-0.15), and the available days of coke in 247 steel mills were 12.01 days (+0.29). The rigid demand for coke weakened [4]. - Inventory: The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 92.24 tons (+1.14), the inventory of major ports was 178.2 tons (+2.55), and the inventory of 247 steel mills was 642.2 tons (+8.47). The overall social inventory of coke increased [4]. - Summary: The supply of coke changed little. The demand structure was weak, and there was a strong expectation of price cuts for coke spot. However, with the increasing expectation of steel mill resumption in January and the support of winter storage replenishment, the futures market is expected to remain volatile at a low level [4]. Macro Real Estate Tracking - The report presents data on national fixed - asset investment cumulative year - on - year, new construction, construction, completion, and sales area of national real estate cumulative year - on - year, weekly commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities, steel industry PMI, and manufacturing PMI, but no in - depth analysis is provided [6][10][14][18] Coking Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - The report shows data on coking coal procurement prices, spot price comparison, price difference tracking, production, operating rate, inventory, and Mongolian coal customs clearance in relevant regions, but no in - depth analysis is provided [21][26][31] Coke Supply and Demand Tracking - The report shows data on coke ex - factory prices, price adjustment schedules, spot price comparison, price difference tracking, profit, production, capacity utilization rate, inventory, and inventory available days, but no in - depth analysis is provided [61][63][69]